Over the weekend, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas released the full-main card lines for next weekend’s UFC Fight Night 50 card, and for Monday morning’s MMA odds and ends I’ll give my quick thoughts on each of the new lines. Alistair Overeem vs. Ben Rothwell Overeem opened at -380, the comeback on Rothwell +260. After action his way Reem is now -505, while Rothwell is +335. I’m not shocked Overeem is such a big favorite but I think it’s very dangerous to lay that kind of juice on him knowing what kind of chin he has. Reem is a top heavyweight for sure, but Rothwell is underrated and he has knockout power. If he can clip Reem’s chin, he could pull off the big upset. At this point, I think it’s dog or pass. Michael Chiesa vs. Joe Lauzon Lauzon opened at -140 with Chiesa at +100, and now Chiesa is a -170 favorite while Lauzon is a +130 dog. I’m surprised the line isn’t higher in Chiesa’s favor, to be honest, as I feel like this is his fight to win or lose. Lauzon has had a great career but he doesn’t have much left in the tank and I believe this could be a spot to fade him. Derrick Lewis vs. Matt Mitrione Lewis opened at -150 with Mitrione at +110 and that’s where the line is now on Monday morning. A competitive heavyweight fight on paper but I do believe Lewis deserves to be the lean here, and if anything, there might even be some value on him at the current line, although any time you lay juice against Mitrione’s power it’s a sweat. Justin Scoggins vs. John Moraga Scoggins opened -280 while Moraga opened +200, and the lines have stayed steady since. I think the number for Scoggins here is very fair and I expect bettors to move it up on him this weekend. So if you like Scoggins, probably best to bet him before the line gets worse. Charles Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz Oliveira opened at -190 with Lentz at +150, and now Oliveira is -160 and Lentz is +120. This is a competitive fight but I feel like the early action on Lentz could be correct, as I feel like he will have the ability to control where the fight takes place and he has stellar submission defence. Still, not an easy fight to pick, but I do think it’s dog or pass.
