Some MMA fans have been complaining about saturation with the UFC’s schedule in 2014, while others love the fact that there’s an event nearly every week. One of those groups will be very happy over the next few weeks, as the organization takes a rare three-week break. After that however, there will be eight consecutive weeks with a UFC event. Kicking off that stretch is UFC Fight Night 47, which is the organization’s first trip to Maine. The card is headlined by a light heavyweight bout between Ryan Bader and Ovince St. Preux. Bader is currently a -160 favorite (bet $160 to win $100) while the comeback on St. Preux is +140 (bet $100 to win $140). The remainder of the card has been without betting lines up to this point, but MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas released the betting odds for all of the remaining bouts today at Several Bookmakers. Included among those bouts is a lightweight scrap between strikers Abel Trujillo and Ross Pearson, which should be a nice contrast between Trujillo’s power and Pearson’s more technical approach. Middleweights Brad Tavares and Tim Boetsch both look to rebound from losses in their last bout when they square off, while former lightweight title contender Gray Maynard and fellow 155er Fabricio Camoes have taken their struggles a step further, each dropping two in a row. The bout order for this event has not been confirmed as of yet, but it’s likely all of these fights end up on the main card. If the UFC continues with the six-fight main cards they’ve been using of late on Fox Sports 1, it’s likely that we will see a couple of fighters actually looking to build on current momentum, as flyweights Zach Makovsky and Jussier Formiga are in the thick of title contention at 125. The final bout which may join the main card is at featherweight, as Robbie Peralta meets Thiago Tavares, who is dropping to 145 for the first time. Alternately, former women’s bantamweight title challenger Sara McMann could welcome Invicta’s undefeated 135lb champion Lauren Murphy to the Octagon in the opening bout of the evening. Check out the odds for all the UFC Fight Night 47 bouts below: ——————– CARD ORDER TBD (Fox Sports 1) Ryan Bader -210 Ovince St. Preux +160 Gray Maynard -125 Ross Pearson -115 Brad Tavares -270 Tim Boetsch +190 Zach Makovsky -210 Jussier Formiga +160 Thiago Tavares -165 Robbie Peralta +125 Sara McMann -290 Lauren Murphy +210 Shawn Jordan -190 Jack May +150 Sam Alvey -160 Tom Watson +120 Seth Baczynski -185 Alan Jouban +145 Frankie Saenz -170 Nolan Ticman +130 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Abel Trujllo has made huge strides in his striking during his UFC tenure, but he was getting lit up by Jamie Varner before landing a knockout blow in that fight. My worry for Trujillo is that big shot may never come in this fight. Pearson has historically done well against brawling type strikers, but his chin has let him down in the past. This is really anybody’s fight, and if the line stays close, I can’t play either side. (FIGHT CANCELLED DUE TO TRUJILLO INJURY. MAYNARD HAS MOVED UP FROM BOUT VERSUS CAMOES TO FACE PEARSON.) When a struggling fighter needs a win, Fabricio Camoes seems to be the go-to opponent, and that’s the position Gray Maynard is in right now. Unless Maynard’s decline has reached catastrophic levels (which it very well could have), he’s going to be the better wrestler and striker than Camoes, and have more power. It’s extremely difficult to trust Maynard with your money at this point, so I would just wait to see if the line climbs too high and maybe throw a flier on Camoes as a KO is a distinct possibility with Maynard’s chin. (FIGHT CANCELLED DUE TO MAYNARD BEING MOVED UP TO CO-MAIN EVENT AGAINST ROSS PEARSON.) With this late replacement bout, Maynard faces a much bigger challenge, and one much more in line with the fighters who have defeated him recently. Pearson doesn’t have the submission pedigree of TJ Grant or Nate Diaz, nor the wrestling of Frankie Edgar, but those attributes were secondary to each of those fighters. They were all able to do a great deal of damage to Maynard with their hands. Maynard will have to get his wrestling going early and often against Pearson, or he could suffer a similar fate here. The Brit doesn’t have a ton of punching power, so the first punch landed may not be a sign of trouble, but his combination punching seems like it could be enough to put the former challenger away. Brad Tavares was completely outclassed against Yoel Romero, but there are very few fighters at middleweight who wouldn’t be. Tavares will still be effective against the mid- to lower-tier fighters in the division, and with Tim Boetsch’s recent performances, he falls into those categories. Realistically, Boetsch should be on a five-fight losing streak (he definitely lost to C.B. Dolloway and most thought he lost to Hector Lombard as well), and he has not looked good. I expect that Tavares will outwork him on the feet, and control enough of the wrestling to take a decision. Zach Makovsky is on track to challenge for the flyweight title, and it seems like he’s got a favorable matchup against Jussier Formiga. Very few flyweights will be able to outwrestle and outscramble Makovsky, and his striking has improved to the point that he should be able to easily handle Formiga on the feet. If Formiga commands some respect from the public, Makovsky could become playable in a parlay. There is some risk of him giving up his back and being unable to shake Formiga however, so it’s Thiago Tavares brings a lot of questions with him down to featherweight, as he had a questionable chin at lightweight and weight cuts rarely help in that regard. The matchup doesn’t help him here either, as Peralta is a better striker and has solid takedown defense which will allow him to test Tavares’ chin. I expect him to find it at some point, or be able to win rounds with the threat of his power, or take the later rounds if Tavares fades. Lauren Murphy has made bettors a lot of money over the past few years with her gritty style. I just don’t see it being effective against Sara McMann who can outwrestle her whenever things get a bit dicey. I don’t necessarily think this will be the most exciting women’s fight we’ve seen, as McMann will control the majority of the exchanges. I think the line is going to get way too steep here however, and value may end up being on Murphy as she could outwork McMann later in the fight. Rarely are mid-level heavyweights to be trusted, and this fight illustrates that. Shawn Jordan has more and higher level experience, is the better fighter across three rounds, but has a very vulnerable chin. Jack May showed some decent scrambling for a man of his size in his debut against Derrick Lewis, but also poor cardio. If May doesn’t get Jordan out of there in the first round, he’s probably losing this fight, but there is a distinct potential for him to get an early stoppage. I won’t be betting this fight either way though. Even though Sam Alvey is making his official UFC debut, he comes in as a favorite, and for good reason. Tom Watson is a fun striker, but can be exploited in the grappling department and while Alvey likes to brawl at times, he also knows when to get to the clinch and go for takedowns. Against Watson if he employs a more grappling-heavy approach he should be well on his way to a decision victory. Perhaps if the public sides with the UFC vet, Alvey can be had at a discounted price here. Alan Jouban is another UFC newcomer who should be in a competitive fight. He is a striker who is very hard to put away and will keep moving forward regardless of how fatigued he is. That type of style could have some success against Seth Baczynski, who has had difficulty controlling distance against shorter opponents in the past, but Baczynski does have a sizeable grappling advantage in this bout. I actually lean slightly towards Jouban but not enough to make a bet, unless the line moves in the other direction a bit more. A bout between Frankie Saenz and Nolan Ticman was added on short notice. Both bantamweights are making their UFC debuts, and little is known about either. Saenz may have the edge in this opening line because Ticman has been out of action for nearly two years. It’s difficult to see this bout attracting much action either way.
