One of the Fight Pass prelims at UFC on FOX 12 is a three-round women’s strawweight bout between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Juliana Carneiro Lima. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Jedrzejczyk as a -280 favorite (bet $280 to win $100) while Lima is a +255 underdog (bet $100 to win $255). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Jedrzejczyk at -280 and Lima at +200, and the action has held steady as the lines have tightened. I really like Jedrzejczyk in this matchup and believe she should be an even bigger favorite in this spot. Here’s why. Jedrzejczyk (6-0) is one of the most powerful pound-for-pound strikers amongst the women in MMA. The 26-year-old Pole is undefeated in mixed martial arts so far after a stellar muay Thai career, and in her last fight she knocked out veteran Rosi Sexton to earn a UFC contract. Although she is only 115lbs, Jedrzejczyk hits like a truck and some have compared her to a female version of John Dodson. Along with her knockout power, she also has very good defensive wrestling. She is young and improving and although she doesn’t have much experience, neither do many of the other fighters in her division. With her sprawl-and-brawl style, Jedrzejczyk has the potential to not only defeat Lima this weekend, but also make a run for the 115lb belt once TUF 20 finishes. She could be a star. Lima (6-1) was set to appear on TUF 20 but due to a lack of English she was instead shuttled right into the UFC. The Invicta veteran is 32 years old but she only has seven fights in her career and hasn’t taken much damage. She is primarily a grappler who uses her size to wrestle her opponents to the ground and beat them up there. However, she isn’t very active with her ground and pound and with her submissions and to me reminds me of a female version of Jon Fitch. That means she can win fights if her opponents can’t wrestle, but if she goes up against someone who can stop takedowns she could be in trouble. Although she does have an edge on the ground over Jedrzejczyk, she will have a hard time getting there, and if this fight stays standing as many expect it to, she is going to have a difficult time winning. And that’s why she is the underdog heading into it. I believe Jedrzejczyk will use her sprawl to keep the fight upright and on the feet she is by far the superior fighter. Look for her to continue her undefeated streak with either a dominant decision win or possibly even a knockout. At -280, there is definitely value on Jedrzejczyk as a parlay piece and I feel she is one of the better bets on the entire card.
