This Saturday, one of the most anticipated fights of the year goes down on Fox. Welterweights Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown will look to inflict all sorts of damage upon one another in an effort to move a step closer to champion Johny Hendricks. Before the four-fight main card kicks off on Big Fox, one of MMA’s greatest running jokes continues as four “preliminary” fights will air on Fox, while four more take place on UFC Fight Pass. The majority of the prelims feature either a promising prospect or a solid matchup, so even though the lead-in to the main card will run approximately four hours, it should be interesting. The bout between lightweights Jorge Masvidal and Daron Cruickshank should be an entertaining striking bout, although Masvidal does have a sizeable grappling advantage should he choose to employ it. At light heavyweight, Patrick Cummins hopes to continue putting his UFC debut against Daniel Cormier as far in the rear view as possible, as he faces the returning Kyle Kingsbury. As exciting as he can be on the feet, Tim Means has now lost three consecutive UFC bouts. Against Thiago Perpetuo he should get his long-awaited striking battle which is his chance to impress. After those three bouts the card turns towards younger, unproven fighters, but there is no lack of talents amongst names like Brian Ortega, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Gilbert Burns and Andreas Stahl — all undefeated fighters making their Octagon debuts. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for all remaining bouts on the UFC on Fox 12 card at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox, 8pm ET) Robbie Lawler -260 Matt Brown +180 Anthony Johnson -475 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +325 Dennis Bermudez -185 Clay Guida +145 Josh Thomson -260 Bobby Green +180 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox, 6pm ET) Jorge Masvidal -300 Daron Cruickshank +220 Patrick Cummins -190 Kyle Kingsbury +150 Tim Means -305 Hernani Perpetuo +225 Brian Ortega -140 Mike de la Torre +100 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 4:15pm ET) Tiago dos Santos e Silva -280 Akbarh Arreola +200 Steven Siler -290 Noad Lahat +210 Gilbert Burns -130 Andreas Stahl -110 Joanna Jedrzejczyk -290 Juliana Carneiro Lima +210 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Daron Cruickshank impressed on the feet against Erik Koch in his last bout, and that may lead some to believe that he can handle Masvidal in the striking realm as well, but I don’t see it. Cruickshank has struggled against technical strikers in the past and Masvidal definitely fits that description. Much like John Makdessi was able to shut Cruickshank down with his jab, I see Masvidal having success on the feet. Once he’s established that, he can work in his wrestling if he chooses and realistically Masvidal can finish this fight from anywhere while being extremely durable himself. While Kyle Kingsbury has been beaten up badly by Jimi Manuwa and Glover Teixeira in his last few fights, it’s his bout against Stephan Bonnar that worries me most here. Bonnar took Kingsbury down and absolutely dominated him with positional grappling. I see no reason why Cummins would be unable to do the same, especially given the fact that his wrestling is vastly superior to Bonnar’s. Kingsbury is also coming off an extremely long layoff. I actually thought he was retired before this fight was announced. Tim Means finally gets a fighter who is going to strike with him, and he should look good. Jordan Mein was able to dominate Hernani Perpetuo on the feet for the most part, and in terms of pure striking I think Means is more dangerous. Perpetuo is wild on the feet and porous defensively, and if he does try to turn to his wrestling he’s simply not strong enough in that area to control Means long enough to win that way. Mike de la Torre made far more of an impression than I expected in his UFC debut, but I’m still unsure of how much Mark Bocek’s decline played into that. His submission defense in the past is a worry, especially against a sneaky grappler like Brian Ortega. That said, if I bet anything here it would be de la Torre as a dog. I said following Ortega’s RFA title win that he still needed polishing before he was ready for the UFC, and while the threshold for UFC fighters has dropped considerably, Ortega didn’t get a walkover fight here. While Ortega’s submission grappling is excellent, his striking and wrestling still need lots of work and de la Torre looked good defending takedowns against a solid wrestler in his debut at lightweight, so facing a smaller subpar wrestler bodes well for him. I’m really not as familiar with Tiago dos Santos e Silva as I’d like to be heading into this bout, but I have a pretty solid read on Akbarh Arreola, and it’s not a positive one. Arreola was knocked out by Juan Manuel Puig just four fights ago, and we saw how ineffective Puig’s striking was once he hit the UFC. I’m not confident in Silva due to the quality of his competition, but if he can’t get past Arreola he really shouldn’t be in the UFC. It’s always amazing how a couple minutes of fight time can change perception around an athlete. Usually it’s a quick win that has a fighter overvalued in his next bout, but in Lahat’s case he may actually be a bit undervalued here. Steven Siler doesn’t have a great deal of punching power, so Lahat may be able to close the distance and control him in the grappling. I still favor Siler, but the line in this one will likely go too far in that direction. It’s rare that two undefeated debuting fighters face-off in their first trip in the Octagon, but with Gilbert Burns and Andreas Stahl, that’s exactly what we’ll see. Stahl is naturally a welterweight, while Burns normally fights at lightweight, so that gives the Swede an advantage. Stahl is coming off a fairly long layoff on top of a two-year hiatus from the sport, while Burns has been active more recently yet has never been out of the first round in one of his fights. Both are at their best when grappling, and Burns has the better credentials but is the inferior wrestler and at a size disadvantage. Essentially, there are too many variables here for me to confidently bet either side, but I am siding ever so slightly with Stahl. Kicking off the night is the second strawweight fight in UFC history, and Joanna Jedrzejczyk could prove to be a contender in the division. She has already dominated Rosi Sexton and holds a defeat over WMMA veteran Karla Benitez as well. The fact that Jedr… Joanna was able to stop Rosi Sexton while a heavy hitting 135lb Jessica Andrade couldn’t accomplish the task is telling. Juliana Lima’s best attribute is her grappling, so if she can get past Joanna’s takedown defense she does have a route to victory, but that will be no small task. I like the Polish fighter to get it done and look impressive in doing so.
