The opening main card bout at WSOF 11 is a three-round bantamweight bout between Cody “Bam Bam” Bollinger and Pablo “The Hurricane” Alfonso. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Bollinger as a -185 favorite (bet $185 to win $100) while Alfonso is a +160 underdog (bet $100 to win $160). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Bollinger at -280 and Alfonso at +200, and so far there has been action on the dog Alfonso. I agree with the dog action as I’m picking Alfonso to get the upset. Here’s why. Bollinger (15-2, 1 NC) made his WSOF debut earlier this year, defeating Tyson Nam via controversial unanimous decision. The 23 year old was a participant on TUF 18 and made it into the house, but after missing weight he was kicked off the show. Although he did make weight for the fight with Nam, he missed weight once again for this fight with Alfonso and while he will be one of the biggest bantamweights when he steps into the cage, he’s also said he’s done with the weight class and will be moving to 145lbs after this. He is a very well-rounded fighter who is young and improving. He has good striking skills to go along with a solid wrestling background and he also has some underrated submissions. However, he hasn’t fought great competition and when he has stepped up he’s had a rough time. He is still young though and constantly getting better, but with the weight issues it’s really hard to say where he’s at mentally heading into this bout with Alfonso. He is the favorite since he is a more popular, well-known fighter, but he is taking on a very underrated bantamweight in Alfonso and it’s a pretty close match on paper. Alfonso (9-5) isn’t that well known and doesn’t have a great record, but but he is constantly improving and getting better and better each time we see him. The 32 year old is currently riding a three-fight win streak and in his last fight, which was also his WSOF debut, he submitted former WEC bantamweight champion Miguel Torres in the first round with a guillotine choke. In fact, all nine of his victories have come via knockout or submission. He is a very well-rounded fighter who has excellent grappling as well as improving standup, although his wrestling could definitely use some work. He trains at MMA Masters in Florida alongside top-ranked featherweight Ricardo Lamas and for this fight he will have home-field advantage. He’s actually quite underrated if you ask me, and doesn’t get the respect from the fans that he deserves. He enters this fight with Bollinger as an underdog, but it’s a winnable fight to be sure and it shouldn’t shock anyone if he pulls off the upset here as he certainly has the talent to do so, but of course it won’t be an easy feat going up against a well-rounded fighter like Bollinger. I believe Alfonso can earn the upset here by getting the fight to the floor and snatching a submission, or possibly even outstriking Bollinger en route to a decision win. Whatever method it is, though, I think Alfonso comes through with the upset. At +160 I see value on Alfonso as an underdog in this spot and think it’s worth making a play on him. I believe that this fight is close to a Pick ’em and while I do understand the hype on Bollinger means he should be the favorite as far as the odds go, I still think it’s a very close match and I have to favor the underdog in this spot to get the win.
