UFC 175 Date: July 5, 2014 Arena: Mandalay Bay Events Center City: Las Vegas, NV UFC 175 will be live on Saturday with 11 scheduled bouts, including a five-fight main card that will be live on Pay-Per-View at 10pm ET, with preliminary action kicking off on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET. If interested in wagering on the props suggested in this article, or any other props or wagers for this card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for UFC 175 are: Women’s Bantamweight title bout: Alexis Davis (+800) vs Ronda Rousey (-1000) Rousey by T/KO (+425) 1u to win 4.25u Rousey -9.5 (-625) 6.25u to win 1u Simply put, I think Rousey is going to continue to roll here in dominant fashion. For a full write-up on this women’s bantamweight title fight, please check out my fight article for the bout. Bantamweight bout: Alex Caceres (+700) vs Urijah Faber (-900) Caceres by Decision (+1310) 1u to win 13.1u Caceres +3.5 (+330) 1u to win 3.3u I am a big fan of both of these 135-pounders and feel there is value in Caceres at these odds. I got him at +1000, +950, +850, +800 and think he may climb back up to +1000 by fight time, as money will likely come in on Faber on fight day, though I think there is still plenty of value at +700. I think if he is constantly moving, he can frustrate Faber. If he follows a similar game-plan to what Carlos Condit used against Nick Diaz, I think he will be successful. He has said that he has no specific game-plan for the fight, though, so that does not make me feel too great. Faber is getting older and Caceres is constantly improving, so I think a finish is a possibility, as well. I am going to go out on a limb and say Caceres beats Faber in this fight, becoming the first bantamweight to do so in a non-title fight. He could do it via finish, but I think he will get the better of “The California Kid” on the feet en route to a decision victory, possibly a split. I think if he avoids getting submitted, he has a decent chance of winning this fight; much, much greater than the betting odds suggest. Middleweight bout: Bruno Santos (+210) vs Chris Camozzi (-230) Camozzi by T/KO (+475) 1u to win 4.75u I think Camozzi has a decent chance of earning stoppage in this fight, which would be his first in a while. I expect him to outstrike Santos on the feet, and I feel if he pours it on, especially late in the fight, he will be able to stop him with strikes and earn a TKO win. Camozzi is the superior striker with the superior cardio, so if he is aggressive, I believe he will have opportunities to finish the fight. Welterweight bout: Ildemar Alcantara (-130) vs Kenny Robertson (+120) Robertsn by T/KO (+1120) .5u to win 5.6u Robertson +3.5 (-165) 1.65 to win 1u I think Robertson should be a small favorite in this match-up and I feel at the least he will be able to win one round, unless we see the best Ildemar Alcantara we’ve ever seen. However, if we see the same Ildemar Alcantara who fought Igor Araujo, Robertson will likely defeat him, and I feel he will have a decent chance at stopping the Brazilian via ground and pound TKO, so at +1120, I see mighty value in that prop. Middleweight bout: Kevin Casey (+160) vs William “Bubba” Bush (-170) Bush by Decision (+260) 1u to win 2.6u This is a match-up between RFA middleweight champion vs Legacy MC middleweight champion, with both champs coming off recent wins. After going 0-1 inside the Octagon, Casey was released from the promotion but has since picked up three consecutive victories under the RFA banner, last defeating the then-undefeated prospect Andrew Sanchez a month ago to win the promotion’s vacant belt. The fight is an even shorter notice for Bush, who defeated Alfonso Gonzales to retain his title just over a couple of weeks ago. “Bubba” is a talented wrestler who has been showing improvements in his striking, as well as his submission game. Submission defense, however, has been his biggest weakness, and that may be what costs him this fight against the heavy handed Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt in Casey. That said, I think his defense has improved, as well, and he will be able to fend off Casey’s submission attempts, as he outwrestles The Ultimate Fighter season 18 veteran en route to a decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. A TKO is certainly not out of the question, given Casey’s history of cardio issues, but I feel Casey will display heart and go all 15 minutes in this one.
