WSOF 11 Date: July 5, 2014 Arena: Ocean Center City: Daytona, FL World Series of Fighting 11 will be live on the NBC Sports Network tonight (Saturday) at 4pm ET with a four-fight main card that is sure to produce fireworks. If interested in wagering on this card, these lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. These are my plays for WSOF 11… Lightweight title bout: bout: Justin Gaethje (-450) vs Nick Newell (+330) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a fight between two very tough lightweights who are both undefeated finishers. I could see a finish coming at either end, and while I favor Gaethje to pick up the win, I believe the betting value in this bout is with Newell at the current large underdog price of +330. I personally think he should be +200 in this spot, so I like him for a small value play here. Gabe’s Call: Gaethje by TKO (strikes, 4:59 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Newell (+330) 1.5u to win 4.95u Bantamweight bout: Cody Bollinger (-215) vs Pablo Alfonso (+170) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a fight I don’t care very much about, but I feel Bollinger is getting too much respect, especially for a guy coming off a victory he didn’t deserve, as I felt Tyson Nam clearly outpointed him and deserved that decision. I think Alfonso should be +130 in this bout, so I will make a small value play on him at the current betting odds of +170. Gabe’s Call: Bollinger by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Alfonso (+170) 1u to win 1.7u Welterweight bout: Dennis Hallman (+260) vs John Fitch (-350) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a match-up between a pair of wrestlers who are known for their tenures in the UFC. I think Fitch is the healthier fighter, as well as the bigger fighter. Hallman is back in the welterweight division, after having trouble making 155-pounds and I feel Fitch is an opponent his won’t be able to outwrestle, like he usually favors to do to his opponents. I expect Fitch to get the better of the grappling exchanges in this bout and grind Hallman out for three rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Gabe’s Call: Fitch by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Fitch (-350) parlayed with Guillard (-180) for +100 3.5u to win 3.5u Lightweight bout: bout: JZ Cavalcante (+150) vs Melvin Guillard (-180) Gabe’s Thoughts: To put it simply, I am expecting Guillard to make a strong statement in this bout. I think he is coming to come out the gate firing, and I feel he is going to get the job done; early and impressively. Gabe’s Call: Guillard by TKO (knees and punches, 1:42 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Guillard (-180) parlayed with Fitch (-350) for +100 3.5u to win 3.5u
