UFC 175 Date: July 5, 2014 Arena: Mandalay Bay Events Center City: Las Vegas, NV UFC 175 will be live on Saturday with 11 scheduled bouts, including a five fight main card that will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET, with preliminary action kicking off on FOX Sports 1 at 5pm ET. If interested in wagering on these preliminary bouts, or any others on this fight card, these lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my plays for the UFC 175 preliminary card on FOX Sports 1… Bantamweight: Alex Caceres (+700) vs Urijah Faber (-1100) Gabe’s Thoughts: I am a big fan of both of these 135-pounders and feel there is value in Caceres at these odds. I got him at +1000, +950, +850, +800 and think he may climb back up to +1000 by fight time, as money will likely come in on Faber on fight day, though I think there is still plenty of value at +700. I think he is constantly moving, he can frustrate Faber. If he follows a similar game-plan to what Carlos Condit used against Nick Diaz, I think he will be successful. He has said that he has no specific game-plan for the fight, though, so that does not make me feel too great. Faber is getting older and Caceres is constantly improving, so I think a finish is a possibility, as well. I am going to go out on a limb and say Caceres beats Faber in this fight, becoming the first bantamweight to do so in a non-title fight. He could do it via finish, but I think he will get the better of “The California Kid” on the feet en route to a decision victory, possibly a split. I think if he avoids getting submitted, he has a decent chance of winning this fight; much, much greater than the betting odds suggest. Gabe’s Call: “Bruce Leeroy” by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Caceres (+700) 3u to win 21u Welterweight bout: Ildemar Alcantara (-140) vs Kenny Robertson (+120) Gabe’s Thoughts: Simply put, I think Robertson should be a small favorite in this match-up, so I feel he is worth a bet as a small underdog. He certainly has more heart and a bigger desire to win than Alcantara does, and that helps me like the play even more. Gabe’s Call: Robertson by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Robertson (+120) 2.25u to win 2.7u Middleweight bout: Bruno Santos (+200) vs Chris Camozzi (-240) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Camozzi has a decent chance of earning stoppage in this fight, which would be his first in a while. I expect him to outstrike Santos on the feet, and I feel if he pours it on, especially late in the fight, he will be able to stop him with strikes and earn a TKO win. Camozzi is the superior striker with the superior cardio, so if he is aggressive, I believe he will have opportunities to finish the fight. If he does not earn the finish, I feel he will comfortably earn a unanimous decision nod from the judges. I would play Camozzi up to -400, so I feel there is good value in him at the current betting odds of -240. Gabe’s Call: Camozzi by TKO (strikes, 3:32 round 3) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Camozzi (-240) 6u to win 2.5u
