UFC Fight Night 43 June 28, 2014 Middleweight Matchup: Nate Marquardt vs James Te Huna By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics Big Picture: The main event from New Zealand’s first UFC event features Nate Marquardt going into James Te Huna’s back yard. Is it a Welterweight fight? A Light Heavyweight fight? Nope, both fighters are changing weight classes to meet at Middleweight. Both guys suffered multiple losses in their former divisions, albeit to top level talent. Now they’ll each try to reinvigorate their career in a new (or old) weight class. The line on the hometown favorite Te Huna is -220, with the comeback on the underdog veteran Marquardt +180. Both guys have their back against the wall, but the market is taking a clear stance. So who is favored on the stat-line? Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The Tale of Tape shows both guys creeping into to the later portions of their careers, but with only a 2.5 year difference there’s a small but not huge edge to the younger Te Huna. And despite spanning three weight classes in their recent history, Te Huna does not have a significant size advantage. If anything, going up a weight class might help Marquardt with his striking resiliency that was diminished at Welterweight. Or it could mean Te Huna will be packing even more power than Marquardt is used to facing – which is saying a lot given the strikers he’s been in the cage with lately. And at least Te Huna won’t be as undersized here as he was against the likes of Alexander Gustafsson or Glvoer Teixeira. Striking Matchup: The standup matchup is what most people must be picturing when they lean towards Te Huna as the clear favorite. Te Huna has been in with some of the best at Light Heavyweight, and has performed admirably despite some losses. His striking is very accurate, and his defense is tight. But despite packing a punch, he’s more often been the one getting knocked down than the one dropping opponents. Similarly, Marquardt is also an accurate power striker and also has scored plenty of career knockdowns, but has been on the receiving end of more than his fair share in recent fights. Now the scant 1.5 round limit is making more sense. Both guys have power, but both guys are vulnerable as long as they are standing and trading. All that means don’t blink while the leather flies, and if you need a refresher of why just refer to Marquardt’s 21-second KO of Demian Maia. However, as has been the trend recently in fights featuring two powerful strikers, it’s often the guy with the better ground game who gets the edge. Grappling Matchup: The ground game is where these guys begin to differentiate much more. Marquardt’s grappling credentials are solid, and date way back to his days as a Pancrase champion. Marquardt has more victories by submission than by any other method, and has proven hard to submit himself. On the ground, he’s very quick to attempt submissions, and that will be the biggest mismatch area of this fight. Te Huna is a boxer first, and while he’s spent 69% of his total time in the UFC on the ground, it’s led to two of his three losses that came with a tap. His takedown offense is average, but don’t expect him to use it in this matchup. Defensively, he’s slightly better than average avoiding takedowns, but he’ll have to be at the top of game to keep Marquardt from eventually getting this down. The threat of that takedown may also diminish the aggressiveness of Te Huna’s strikes. Marquardt will be coming in against a potentially larger opponent who loves to throw heat, which has been the profile of several of Marquardt’s recent losses. Look for Marquardt to show how good a grappler he can be by taking this down early, using his wrestling and working a variety of submissions. Reed’s Pick: Marquardt by Submission (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: It’s close to an even matchup on the feet, but not so much on the ground. That’s why I see value on the upset pick for Marquardt. He has the wrestling and grappling combination to be dangerous against the much less experienced Te Huna, and that should help remind us why Nate was so Great for all those year. In five rounds, there’s a lot of room for someone to get tired, sloppy and knocked out. Marquardt did in fact score the only TKO victory over Tyron Woodley in the 4th round of their Strikeforce title fight. With an Over/Under threshold of just 1.5 rounds, the market clearly sees the finishing potential in both fighters. And I do too. The Under of 1.5 rounds at +135 is a reasonable play but awfully tight, although it’s also a hedge against Te Huna being first to land a clean chin shot. Rather, consider a prop on Marquardt Inside the Distance at +300, or specifically By Submission at an even higher plus money value later in the week. “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon! Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis.
