The co-main event of UFC Fight Night 43 is a three-round heavyweight bout between Jared “The Big Show” Rosholt and Soa “The Hulk” Palelei. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Rosholt as a -140 favorite (bet $140 to win $100) while Palelei is a +120 underdog (bet $100 to win $120). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Rosholt at -230 and Palelei at +170, and so far all the action has been on the underdog Palelei. I disagree with all the action on Palelei and see value in Rosholt at the current line. Here’s why I think he’ll win. Rosholt (10-1) is a very solid wrestler who has made an impact in the UFC heavyweight division since being signed to it last year, going 2-0 with wins over Walt Harris and Daniel Omielanczuk. Just 27, Rosholt has only lost once in his career, a disappointing knockout defeat to fellow UFC fighter Derrick Lewis back when the two were in Legacy FC. However, he’s improved quite a bit since then with six-straight victories and he’s shown that he’s willing to make the changes in his game to improve himself and make it to the top. With his great wrestling, Rosholt is able to get his opponents down to the ground and control them and beat them up there in order to earn his victories. It’s worked out well so far, but he hasn’t fought anyone as big as Palelei yet and it will be interesting to see if he has any success taking the bigger man down. If he can, he should win this fight, but if he can’t get the takedown things will be interesting. But odds are he should be able to dictate where the fight takes place, and that’s why he enters the weekend as the favorite despite being in his opponent’s backyard. Palelei (21-3) is one of the biggest and strongest heavyweights in the UFC and is so far 3-1 in the promotion with wins over Nikita Krylov, Pat Barry and Ruan Potts and a loss to Eddie Sanchez during his first stint in the promotion at UFC 79. A physical specimen, the 36-year-old Palelei is known for his strength and for using it to his advantage to drag his opponents to the ground and beat them up there. Out of his 21 victories, Palelei has finished 17 of them via T/KO and four via submission, and he is currently riding a 12-fight win streak with all victories coming by way of knockout. However, while the win streak is no doubt impressive, if you look closer you’ll see the fighters that Palelei has feasted on aren’t exactly top caliber, with fighters like Bob Sapp, Sean McCorkle and Sentoryu padding his record. Yes, he has vicious ground and pound and in the first round he’s extremely dangerous, but other than that Palelei doesn’t offer too much. His striking isn’t great, his BJJ isn’t anything special, and his cardio is suspect to say the least. So if he can’t get his fights to the ground, he’s in trouble. But if he can, he can be a lethal threat and can probably finish anyone in the division with his fists of steel. Heading into this weekend’s bout against Rosholt, Palelei enters the fight as the underdog despite the hometown advantage, the betting public figuring he will be outwrestled. But will that be the case? We’ll have to wait and find out. Although Palelei has vicious ground and pound, Rosholt is an excellent wrestler and should be able to keep this fight standing. On the feet Rosholt is no world beater and his chin isn’t great but as long as he can keep Palelei at bay until “The Hulk” fatigues he should be okay. Once Palelei gasses, I see Rosholt taking Palelei down in the later rounds and beating him up en route to either a decision or a a late TKO stoppage. At -140 I do think there is value in the current Rosholt moneyline as I think he should be at least a -200 favorite in this fight, and I think he’s worth a bet at this price. Yes his chin isn’t the greatest but Palelei’s striking isn’t anything special and Rosholt should have the tools to dictate where the fight takes place. So as long as he doesn’t get hit with a big punch I think Rosholt wins this fight and I do like him at -140.
