Saturday night saw the release of the betting lines for the main card of UFC Fight Night 42 — the organization’s first trip to the home of Jackson-Winklejohn MMA, Albuquerque, New Mexico — but before the main card begins on Fox Sports 1 at 10pm ET, there are five fights that will be going down. Four will take place on the still baffling Fox Sports 1 prelims (to a Fox Sports 1 card), while Patrick Cummins get his second shot with the company on UFC Fight Pass after being a sacrificial lamb to Daniel Cormier back at UFC 170. The biggest attraction on the preliminary card is bantamweight prospect Sergio Pettis (brother of UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis), while a flyweight bout between former 135lb WEC contender Scott Jorgensen and Danny Martinez also catches the eye. The single UFC Fight Pass bout commences at 7:30pm ET, while the broadcast switches over to Fox Sports 1 for the remaining four preliminary bouts at 8pm ET. More importantly, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas released the betting lines at Several Bookmakers today. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET) Benson Henderson -245 Rustam Khabilov +175 Ross Pearson -130 Diego Sanchez -110 John Dodson -315 John Moraga +235 Rafael dos Anjos -215 Jason High +165 Piotr Hallman -175 Yves Edwards +135 Erik Perez -150 Bryan Caraway +110 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) Sergio Pettis -315 Yaotzin Meza +235 Lance Benoist -110 Bobby Voelker -130 Scott Jorgensen -215 Danny Martinez +165 Jon Tuck -140 Jake Lindsey +100 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 7:30pm ET) Patrick Cummins -315 Roger Narvaez +235 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: There are a couple bouts here that seem like complete mismatches, and a couple that are simply difficult to call. Sergio Pettis is a terrible matchup for Yaotzin Meza, just as most UFC quality fighters are terrible matchups for Meza. Pettis is the vastly superior striker, better submission grappler, and will be proficient enough in the wrestling to not be dominated by the MMA Lab product, who has found his only real success in the UFC by outlasting the cardio deficient John Albert. I expect many to have Pettis as key legs in their parlays, especially since we’ve seen enough of both fighters to know exactly what to expect. The first thing I thought when I saw Lance Benoist’s name on this card was, “Man, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him fight.” That would be because he made his last Octagon appearance in September 2012, losing a decision to Sean Pierson in Toronto. Despite that, and despite Bobby Voelker’s UFC employment being on the line here, I still think Benoist is able to get the job done. He’s a far more accurate striker than Voelker, better defensively, and sufficient in the grappling department to hold his own there. This is not a fight I’m willing to take a side on as far as a bet goes (aside from the O2.5 or decision prop), but for a pick I’ll be backing the fighter with the massive youth advantage. It’s hard not to feel for Scott Jorgensen, especially after his flyweight debut which saw him lose to Jussier Formiga due in large part to an accidental headbutt. He is still a solid fighter who belongs in — or at the very least, near — the top 10 at flyweight, and many think he should be able to emerge victorious against Danny Martinez. The biggest factor here will be the wrestling. Martinez uses that as his best — and against high-level fighters, almost only — attribute, while on paper Jorgensen should be good enough to shut it down and control the striking exchanges. I’m not entirely sure that’s the case however. Both fighters have really only stumbled against the top of the 125lb division, and given the line and public sentiment, I can’t put that much faith in Jorgensen against a quality fighter like Martinez. I had never heard of Jake Lindsey, so the first thing I did to learn about him was look at his record. The most recent name on his record is noted Midwestern journeyman Ted Worthington. When that’s the win that gets you into the UFC, I can’t feel too confident in your chances. However, at the same time, Lindsey is going up against Jon Tuck in his debut, and Tuck has been nothing if not a disappointment in his UFC career thus far. This is the definition of a pass fight in my opinion, but if you can manage to glean a solid lean from it, more power to you. Finally, kicking off the card is a light heavyweight bout between Pat Cummins and Roger Narvaez. To me, this looks like a gift to Cummins because of his willingness to accept the Cormier bout at UFC 170. First, Narvaez is a natural middleweight coming up to 205lbs for this fight, and the bout that earned him a UFC spot was a completely forgettable split decision over middling submission grappler Hayward Charles at Legacy FC 23. The reason I know that performance was forgettable is because I watched that event live (it was the one that featured Tim Means’ brutal KO of Pete Spratt), and I couldn’t remember one detail about his fight. He’s going to be outmatched physically here, not to mention Cummins is a far better wrestler as well. That’s the path I see Cummins taking to victory here — rather easily I might add — and I just hope the public fades Cummins because of the foolish hype behind the Cormier bout.
