The opening main card bout of UFC Fight Night 40 is a three-round flyweight bout between Louis “Da Last Samurai” Smolka and Chris “Kamikaze” Cariaso. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Smolka as a -135 favorite (bet $135 to win $100) while Cariaso is a +115 underdog (bet $100 to win $115). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Smolka at -130 and Cariaso at -110, meaning there has been slight action in Smolka’s direction. This is a competitive fight but I like Smolka here and think the betting public is on the right track by leaning towards him. Here’s why. Smolka (7-0) made a terrific splash in the UFC in his promotional debut back in January, defeating Alp Ozkilic via decision in a fun fight. The 22-year-old Hawaiian is one of the tallest flyweights in the UFC at 5’9″, and he has a long reach to go along with his height. A dangerous fighter in all facets of the game, Smolka has earned six career stoppage wins including two by T/KO and four by submission. A long and rangy striker, Smolka has a deadly muay Thai clinch as well. However, his weakness is his wrestling. Fortunately for Smolka the UFC is pitting him against another striker in a matchup that on paper is a winnable fight for him, and despite the fact he is way less experienced that Cariaso he enters the fight as the favorite to win it. Cariaso (16-5) is one of the most experienced fighters in the UFC flyweight division, having achieved a record of 6-3 overall in the promotion while fighting at both 135lbs and 125lbs. The 32-year-old Californian is a lethal muay Thai striker with good knockout power for his weight. He also has excellent cardio, is very fast, and a very solid chin. However, his ground game is a weakness and overall he has poor takedown defence. He’s also quit small for his weight class. 3-2 overall as a flyweight in the UFC, Cariaso is a top-10 fighter and his ranking is deserved based on his quality of opposition and his results against them. This weekend at UFC Fight Night 40, Cariaso looks to establish himself as one of the best flyweights in the world by taking out a young up-and-comer in Smolka, and if he wins this fight he will be one step closer to a title shot. But it’s a fight that’s a tough matchup on paper, and that’s why he’s the dog here even though he has way more experience against way better fighters compared to his opponent. This should be a fairly competitive striking battle for as long as it lasts, but I believe Smolka’s physical advantages give him the edge here and I think he can outpoint the more-experienced Cariaso en route to a decision victory. At -135, I think Smolka is a worthwhile straight bet or could be worthwhile as part of a two-team parlay with Eddie Wineland or the prop on the Brown/Silva fight not going to the distance. I just think he has too many advantages in this fight and although Cariaso has made me some money in the past, I think this is a bad matchup for him and I have to go with the young Hawaiian at the low-juiced price.
