A light heavyweight tournament quarterfinal at Bellator 118 features Liam McGeary vs. “Crazy” Mike Mucitelli. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists McGeary as a -230 favorite (bet $230 to win $100) while Mucitelli is a +190 underdog (bet $100 to win $190). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up McGeary at -210 and Mucitelli at +160, and there has been slight action towards the favorite McGeary since then. I agree with the slight action in McGeary’s favor as I’m also picking him to win the fight. Here’s why. McGeary (6-0) is an undefeated English light heavyweight who has so far scored a 3-0 record in Bellator. The 31-year-old, who is a member of Team Renzo Gracie, is a heavy-handed striker who likes to finish his opponents early in round one. He also has slick submissions and has scored three armbars so far in his MMA career. I believe McGeary has a very bright future in the sport and although he is 31 I still think he has time to make a run for the Bellator light heavyweight championship. And with a win over Mucitelli at Bellator 118, he will get a chance to fight for a Bellator tournament title. Mucitelli (6-0, 1 NC) is an undefeated American prospect 4-0, 1 NC so far under the Bellator banner. The 30-year-old is a solid long and rangy striker but it’s his ground game that is his biggest asset as four of his six wins have come via submission. He is also a fast starter, as six of his seven pro fights have ended inside the first round. Although Mucitelli is the underdog in this fight, you can’t count him out of the bout and he could very well score a stoppage inside of three rounds for a sizeable upset if McGeary doesn’t respect his game. This is actually a pretty good light heavyweight fight for Bellator standards, and I’m looking forward to watching it as someone is going to lose the goose egg attached to their record. I think someone is getting stopped in this fight, and I think that someone will be Mucitelli, as I see McGeary storming hard out of the gate and finishing the fight via stoppage in the first round. I lean McGeary here but I’m cautious about laying so much juice on an unproven fighter. However, I really like the UNDER 1.5 rounds total at +115 as I see there being an early stoppage in this one either way. Plus, with the UNDER there is an added cushion in the case of a Mucitelli upset, so at plus money I think that total has definitely got some nice value.
