UFC on FOX 11 Date: April 18, 2014 Arena: Amway Center City: Orlando, FL These are my plays for UFC on FOX 11’s Fight Pass prelims… Flyweight bout: Dustin Ortiz (-210) vs Ray Borg (+190) Gabe’s Prediction: Even considering he is taking this fight on short notice and the extra weight he had to cut to make 125 pounds, I think Borg is going to be the better fighter everywhere. He is a threat both on the feet and on the mat. He is a real finisher, but Ortiz is very tough, so I’m not confident Borg will be able to pull off the finish against the Duke Roufus product. I believe the undefeated Borg is the more talented fighter of the two and has the brighter future in the sport. Even on short notice, I think he should be the favorite in this spot. For that reason, I have to recommend a play on the Legacy FC veteran. Gabe’s Call: Ray Borg by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Borg (+190) 3.95u to win 7.5u Featherweight bout: Chas Skelly (-110) vs Mirsad Bektic (-120) Gabe’s Prediction: I lean towards Bektic winning this bout, and liked the play on him more when he was an underdog. Money coming in on Bektic reversed the betting lines to make him the slight favorite now. I still like him for a small play, as I think he will be able to keep this fight standing and use his superior striking to get the better of 15 minutes against Skelly, who will be looking to take the undefeated Bektic down and grind him out using his superior wrestling. This should be a fun, closely contested match-up. These are two talented featherweights who I think have a future in the UFC, and I am looking forward to seeing them make their debut. I could see Bektic scoring the finish, but Skelly is very tough, so more often than not, I think this fight hits the judges’ scorecards. It’s either going to be Skelly’s wrestling or Bektic’s stand up that plays the difference in this fight, and I am going with the well-rounded striker to pick up the W. Gabe’s Call: Mirsad Bektic by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Bektic (-120) 1.2u to win 1u Heavyweight bout: Derrick Lewis (-300) vs Jack May (+270) Gabe’s Prediction: Lewis is the more experienced, and dare I say better fighter. That said, I feel as though he is being over-valued in this spot, especially considering that it is a heavyweight contest and he is going up against an undefeated newcomer with a lot of question marks around him. While, on paper, Lewish should win this fight more often than not, I think the value is with the underdog. Enough to warrant a little action, in fact. I could see either fighter ending this fight inside the distance, but if it goes the distance, I lean towards Lewis taking the nod, but think May has a shot at notching a decision, as well. Gabe’s Call: Derrick Lewis by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Jack May (+270) .5u to win 1.35
