The main event of UFC on FOX 11 is a five-round heavyweight bout between Travis “Hapa” Browne and Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Browne a -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100) while Werdum is a +190 underdog (bet $100 to win $190). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Browne and -210 and Werdum at +160, meaning the line has stayed close to the opener as money has come in on both sides. As I can see why the line has stayed close to the opener because it’s not an easy fight to pick, but I agree that Browne should be the favorite and I’m taking him to win the fight. Here’s why. Browne (16-1-1) had a breakout year in 2013, going 3-0 with brutal knockout wins over Josh Barnett, Alistair Overeem, and Gabriel Gonzaga. The 31-year-old Hawaiian is one of the biggest and most powerful heavyweights in the UFC, and so far he’s racked up an incredibly-impressive 7-1-1 record in the Octagon with six wins coming by way of stoppage and the only loss coming to Bigfoot Silva in a bout where Browne was injured prior to getting finished. Browne is known for his incredible knockout power, athleticism, and agility, and blessed with a long reach he is one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. He also has fantastic takedown defence and the elbows he throws when his opponents have him in a double leg against the fence are nothing short of spectacular. Training under Greg Jackson in New Mexico, Browne has elevated his game to another level and there is a ton of hype behind him right now — and for good reason. He is one of the rising heavyweight stars and should he take out Werdum in impressive fashion at UFC on FOX 11, people will be talking about him as a possible title contender. Werdum (17-5-1) is the top submission fighter in the UFC heavyweight division and is known for being the man who snapped the legendary Fedor Emelianenko’s long winning streak with a shocking triangle choke nearly four years ago. Since that win over Emelianenko, Werdum has taken his striking to another level and showed in his fights against Roy Nelson and Mike Russow that he’s not just a one-trick pony anymore. The 36-year-old has a lot of experience fighting the top heavyweights in the world, he’s great on the ground, he has underrated knockout power, and he also has a solid chin. In general, I actually think he’s really underrated by most fans and media, most of whom just point to his KO loss to Junior dos Santos from UFC 90 as a reason why he will never win the title. Well that was almost six years ago and Werdum is a much different fighter now. Working with Master Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA, Werdum has really rounded out his game and is now a complete mixed martial artist, not just a BJJ player. And if he can use his skills to defeat Browne at UFC on FOX 11 on Saturday night, he will earn a title shot in the UFC heavyweight division. This is not an easy fight to pick, but I think Browne is going to be able to thwart most of Werdum’s takedown attempts, keep the fight on the feet, and attack him from a distance. I believe Browne will be able to outland Werdum with a combination of kicks and punches and I think at some point he is going to land the knockout blow and earn the No. 1 contender spot in the UFC heavyweight division. Although I am picking Browne, I am hesitant to bet him at -210 in this spot because Werdum has a clear path to victory should he get this fight to the floor and he also has underrated knockout power himself. So I can’t really recommend a bet on the current moneyline. However, the prop on Browne inside the distance is -125 so at nearly half the price I think that’s the right way to go here if you like Browne instead of going with the moneyline. I also like the prop on the fight not going the distance at -365 for parlays.
