Due to an injury to lightweight Bobby Green, this weekend’s UFC 172 card has been forced to undergo a last-minute shakeup. The promotion announced over the weekend that Green is out of his UFC 172 main card matchup against Jim Miller and in his place will be Yancy Medeiros, who will now take on Miller in the biggest fight of his young career to date. In order to facilitate the Miller vs. Medeiros booking, the UFC had to remove the Hawaiian from his UFC 172 undercard bout against Joe Ellenberger, and now Ellenberger — the twin brother of UFC welterweight star Jake Ellenberger — will take on returning UFC veteran Vagner Rocha in a preliminary card bout. Although the UFC was obviously put into a bad spot with Green withdrawing due to injury at the last moment, I actually really dig this replacement fight between Miller and Medeiros, and in some ways it’s a similar matchup. Like Green, Medeiros has excellent hands and if anyone watched Miller’s last fight against Fabricio Camoes it’s clear his boxing needs a lot of work. If a BJJ player like Camoes was able to land numerous hard strikes on Miller in the standup, imagine what a high-level boxer like Green or Medeiros can do? I think UFC matchmaker Joe Silva’s thinking when booking this bout was we already know Miller is a great fighter on the ground, but how far has his striking declined? And that’s why I liked the fight between Green and Miller, and why I like this new fight between Miller and Medeiros. The betting line for this bout will be released in the next few days and I expect Miller to be slightly favored. However, I think this is a dog or pass situation based on how both men have looked in recent bouts and if Medeiros is available at decent plus money, I’ll likely take a stab at him. As for Ellenberger vs. Rocha, I definitely favor Ellenberger in this matchup. Although Rocha is deserving of a second run in the UFC after winning four fights in a row on the regional circuit, we’ve already seen in his previous Octagon outing against Donald Cerrone and Jonathan Brookins that his standup is his weakness. And while his ground game is definitely solid, I don’t think he’ll be able to get Ellenberger to the floor and I think Jake’s brother is going to put on a show in his UFC debut. Like Miller vs. Medeiros, the line for Ellenberger vs. Rocha will be revealed in the next few days and I’m expecting Ellenberger to open up as the favorite. It’s possible that because of his last name Ellenberger will be overvalued in this betting odds, but if for whatever reason he’s available at a reasonable price I’ll be definitely firing on him. With these two replacement matchups now official, Joe Silva proves once again he can fix a problem when there is one, and I’m really looking forward to both of these new fights.
