Here are my prop plays for UFC Fight Night 39 in Abu Dhabi… Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (+120) vs Roy “Big Country” Nelson (-130) Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (-215) 3.01u to win 1.4u I don’t see this fight going all five rounds of action. I won’t be surprised if it does, but the line not going the distance should realistically be around the -400 area, so for that reason, I like a value bet here. For a full-write up on the fight, I refer you to my fight article. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (-125) vs Tatsuya “Crusher” Kawajiri (+115) Kawajiri Inside the Distance (+355) 1u to win 3.55u My gut tells me that there’s a decent chance “Crusher” ends this fight with a choke, and I think it is a realistic possibility. At +355, I believe there is enough value to warrant a bet. For a full write-up on this fight, please check out my fight article on the bout. John “Doomsday” Howard” (+325) vs Ryan LaFlare (-360) LaFlare -3.5 (-145) 1.74u to win 1.2u I think LaFlare is better than Howard everywhere, and will ultimately outclass him, regardless of where the fight goes. I think he will beat him on the feet, mix in takedowns, and beat him on the mat, as well. I am expecting a dominant performance from LaFlare, and with an impressive victory, he will rightfully earn a shot against a top 15-20 opponent. I think the only way Howard gets his hand raised is by getting very lucky and catching LaFlare right on the button with perfect timing, or being rewarded a Leonard Garcia-esque robbery. For a full write up on this welterweight tilt, I refer you to my fight article. Beneil Dariush (-240) vs Ramsey Nijem (+220) Dariush -3.5 (-125) 2u to win 1.6u Much like the LaFlare bout, I think Dariush simply outclasses Nijem everywhere. I am expecting him to get the better of the stand up and the grappling. Many are saying they think this is going to be a close fight. I, on the other hand think Dariush is going to dominate. I expect him to get the finish, but he he doesn’t, I will be surprised if he doesn’t walk away with a 30-27 unanimous nod from the judges. For a full write up on this scrap, please visit my fight article for the bout. ”Brutal” Johnny Bedford (+177) vs Rani Yahya (-192) Yahya Inside the Distance (+220) 1u to win 2.2u Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (+105) 3u to win 3.15u I think Yahya wins this fight by submission a majority of the time. If he loses, it will most likely come via TKO. I think the line for the fight not going the distance should be above -200, so at +105, I have to make a decent sized value play. (If Several Bookmakers limits you on your bet, wait a bit for any sort of line movement, so you can add more.) Please check out my fight article for a full write-up on this bantamweight scrap. Thales Leites (-460) vs Trevor “Hot Sauce” Smith (+410) Leites Inside the Distance (+135) 2u to win 2.7u I think Leites will finally earn his first finish since his return to the Octagon. He has been the superior grappler in both his bouts since his return, but they have both gone the distance, as he failed to secure the chokes he attempted on the mat. I know he will be looking to secure a submission in Abu Dhabi, and 15 minutes against a poorly conditioned Smith should be enough to get the job done. For a full write-up on this middleweight contest, I refer you to my fight article.
