Don’t adjust your calendars. This Sunday marks the first Zuffa event in ages that has taken place on the day we normally reserve for nursing hangovers and watching football. The Octagon heads back to Brazil for the second time in 2014, and fans get to watch a rematch of an all-time classic fight in the main event as Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua looks to avenge his November 2011 loss to Dan Henderson. The rest of the card features four Brazilians who have taken home ‘Ultimate Fighter’ titles, and 13 Brazilians in total. The odds for the main event has been live for about a week now, and ‘Shogun’ is currently a larger favorite than he closed as for their first encounter, despite losing that bout, sitting at -240 (bet $240 to win $100). The slightly longer line this time around probably has to do with the fact that Henderson hasn’t won a bout since that UFC 139 battle. Close decision losses to Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida didn’t lower Henderson’s stock much, but Vitor Belfort being the first man to finally crack the legendary chin seems to have taken it’s toll on Hendo’s public perception as he is a +200 underdog (bet $100 to win $200) at the moment. Today MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the remaining betting lines for UFC Fight Night 38 at Several Bookmakers, including bouts featuring Cezar ‘Mutante’, Leonardo Santos, Rony ‘Jason’, and Diego Brandao. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 7pm ET) Mauricio Rua -215 Dan Henderson +165 Cezar Ferreira -180 C.B. Dolloway +140 Norman Parke -150 Leonardo Santos +110 Gian Villante -155 Fabio Maldonado +115 Mairbek Taisumov -185 Michel Prazeres +145 Rony Jason -165 Steven Siler +125 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 5pm ET) Diego Brandao -270 Will Chope +190 Ronny Markes -705 Thiago Santos +435 Scott Jorgensen -210 Jussier da Silva +160 Thiago Perpetuo -120 Kenny Robertson -120 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 4pm ET) Noad Lahat -180 Godofredo Pepey +140 Francimar Barroso -140 Hans Stringer +100 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: A fairly well-matched slate of fights here, and I could actually see quite a few Brazilians falling despite the trends indicating how rare that is. C.B. Dolloway was flat-out robbed against Tim Boetsch in his last fight, and he doesn’t get any favors here against Cezar Ferreira. ‘Mutante’ has become fairly popular since winning the original season of TUF Brazil, and the UFC normally likes those type of fighters to have continued success, but this will be the biggest test of his career by far. Dolloway already has a victory in Brazil under his belt, and his wrestling could be enough to pick up another here. Dolloway has always had a few too many defensive issues as a fighter to really be able to trust him, and that’s exactly how I feel about this spot, even though I feel it’s a dog or pass type of fight. This is another interesting fight, as Parke should hold striking and wrestling advantages, but Santos is the longer fighter and much better on the ground. The question will be whether Santos can use that length to either take this to the ground, or make Parke uncomfortable enough that he takes it down. As much as some may like to think so, Santos has been fighting for a very long time and has yet to develop his striking, so I see his only real chance coming in the form of his trip takedowns. While he is skilled with those, the overall edge still belongs to Parke in this one. Another fight I don’t see working out well for the Brazilian is Maldonado/Villante. Fabio Maldonado can punch, but he can’t do much else. Villante isn’t the most well-rounded fighter himself, but he can strike and he can wrestle. That second part is what’s going to come into play here. Maldonado should have lost to Joey Beltran in his last bout, and Villante can replicate a similar gameplan, but do it better. If he becomes a dog, I like it. Mairbek Taisumov came into the UFC with a fair amount of hype, and ended up putting on a solid — but unspectacular — performance in his debut. Part of the reason for that is Taisumov is a fighter who really has to manage his cardio if he doesn’t get an early finish. Prazeres has a similar problem with cardio, but he’s very used to working through it, and I think his wrestling advantage will drain Taisumov to the point that neither will have a whole lot left to offer in the third, only Prazeres will be up a couple rounds. Another dog worth looking at. Opening up the main card, the UFC probably wants to see Rony ‘Jason’ pick up a win here to get him back on track, but I expect it to be much trickier than most imagine. Siler struggles most with wrestlers who are able to continually take him down, and that’s just not Bezerra’s game. I expect this to be an exciting striking battle, but Siler has been the more effective striker in all of his UFC fights, and the strength of Rony ‘Jason’ is still his grappling. I know this is becoming a bit of a trend, but you’re probably looking at another dog or pass scenario. On the preliminary card I’m interested to see how much of the unwarranted respect Will Chope received against Max Holloway sticks around here. I don’t see him pulling off the win against Diego Brandao, but could actually see this line tightening significantly based on the recent performances of each fighter. If there’s a line that’s in danger of going the other way and getting ridiclous, it’s Ronny Markes against Thiago Santos. Santos was brought into the UFC on short notice as a sacrificial lamb for ‘Mutante’, and Markes will treat him exactly the same. He may even get his first UFC finish in this one. As a brief hiatus, back to competitive matchups, and I can actually see the Brazilian coming through as the underdog here. Jorgensen just doesn’t seem fast enough to really compete at 125, and even though he should have a striking edge here, I can see ‘Formiga’ getting a hold of him and dragging him into some scrambles which the Brazilian could certainly win. It’s no bet at the current spot, but if Jorgensen is overvalued by the public, I’ll take a closer look. Wrestling as an advantage has been a theme across this card, and I could see it playing a role here as well. Perpetuo is the vastly superior and more dangerous striker, but if he ends up on his back that won’t do much for him. Neither will his questionable ground skills with a solid grappler like Robertson on top. Perpetuo did show some improvement in his takedown defense against Omari Akhmedov, but that fight was so sloppy it’s hard to take too much from it. This all depends on where the fight takes place. Despite a lot of fighters who don’t have much UFC experience being on this card, the only two making their UFC debuts are Noad Lahat and Hans Stringer. I expect Lahat to be successful in his debut, and he reminds me a bit of Beneil Dariush in that he’s got very good BJJ with developing striking. He’s also better than Godofredo ‘Pepey’ at his best area, the grappling. Things likely won’t be as positive for Stringer, who has skills in all areas, but can be controlled in a variety of positions. That’s exactly what I see Francimar Barroso doing to him.
