Here are my prop plays for UFC 171… Carlos Condot (-150) Mousasi vs Tyron Woodley (+140) Woodley by Decision (+269) 1u to win 2.69u Condit by Submission (+600) .5u to win 3u Condit could have a solid, Greg Jackson game-plan heading into this contest, and could use it brilliantly to pull off a decision victory. However, I am counting on Woodley to make this a fight, score takedowns, and use his wrestling to win rounds, ultimately taking home a decision on the judges’ scorecards. I could see Condit finishing him, especially off his back. The two outcomes for this contest I am expecting are Woodley by Decision, and Condit by triangle choke submission. That said, anything could happen between these two hard hitting welterweights, so I am not counting anything out. Diego Sanchez (+150) vs Myles Jury (-150) Sanchez +3.5 (-175) 3.5u to win 2u I am making this play because Jury is not very strong mentally. Sanchez is mentally very strong, and he is very aggressive. I could see Sanchez making Jury freeze enough and score enough points on him to win the fight, or possibly earn a finish on him. If Jury is 100% game mentally, then I think he could beat Sanchez. That said, I do not believe he is, so I am giving a big mental advantage to Sanchez, and I consider that to be something noteworthy. Sanchez may very well lose this fight, but I think he will manage to win at least one out of three rounds. Hector Lombard (-185) vs Jake Shields (+170) Lombard wins in Round One (+225) 1u to win 2.25u Lombard wins inside the distance (+165) 3u to win 4.95u Simply put, I think Lombard’s power is going to prove to be too much for the former Strikeforce middleweight champ. For a full write up on this bout, I refer you to my fight article. Nikita Krylov (+365) vs Ovince St. Preux (-410) OSP inside the distance (-144) 3.6u to win 2.5u I expect OSP to finish Krylov, most likely via ground and pound. For a full write-up on this light heavyweight bout, please check out my fight article. Alex Garcia (-380) vs Sean Spencer (+340) Garcia wins inside the istance (-165) 1.65u to win 1u Spencer wins in Round Three (+2600) .2u to win 5.2u Spencer has good cardio, so if Garcia gasses, I could see Spencer getting a stoppage. That said, more often than not, I think Garcia ends up with his hands raised after scoring a knockout. Daniel Pineda (-210) vs Robert Whiteford (+190) Pineda by Decision (+318) 1u to win 3.18u Both of these guys are finishers, but more importantly, they’re both hard to finish. Most seem to think this fight is almost guaranteed to end inside the distance. I, however, think it will go all three rounds more often than not. Also more often than not, I see Pineda managing to win at least two out of three rounds on the judges’ scorecards.
