UFC 170 February 22, 2014 Welterweight Matchup: Stephen Thompson vs Robert Whittaker By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics Big Picture: Leading off the main card is a potentially fun striking duel between welterweights who like to stand and trade – and as we’ll see, who are both pretty good at it – when Stephen Thompson takes on Robert Whittaker. Whittaker is known for winning the welterweight bracket in the TUF “Smashes” season of UK vs Australia in 2012. “Wonderboy” Thompson made his way to the UFC the same year riding an impressive kickboxing streak and a nascent, but still undefeated MMA record. Thompson would eventually lose to current #8 welterweight Matt Brown but has rebounded since, and Whittaker has gone 2-1 in the UFC. These two welterweights have progressed in their short UFC careers, and each are attempting to make a push for top 15 recognition. Thompson is currently a very slight -135 favorite over Whittaker at +115. With such a close line, let’s see if the number can’t steer us towards a more likely winner. Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The Tale of Tape shows us two orthodox strikers of similar size. Whittaker does have a substantial Youth Advantage here, although Thompson isn’t old enough (and doesn’t have the history of knockouts) to warrant too much concern over a fragile disposition. On the tape this is still a fairly even matchup, as the odds imply. Striking Matchup: Here’s the key to the fight, because both fighters have spent the majority of their time on their feet while in the UFC. Thompson is known for his elite kickboxing skills, and his extremely accurate jab reflects his precision. His knockdown rate is also impressively well above the welterweight average. But what really has set Thompson apart is his Standup Strike Ratio, which indicates he has outworked his opponents while standing and trading by 70%. On defense, he’s a little better than average, which generally means he lands more strikes per exchange, and far more strikes overall thanks to his cage control and high pace. On the flipside, Whittaker was severely outworked by his last opponent but slightly outpaced his prior two. Overall he has managed to employ very accurate striking. In his last fight he lost a close decision to a fighter (Court McGee) who is known for having a very high pace. This general trend works to Thompson’s favor in terms of cage control. Whittaker is almost entirely reliant on boxing, while Thompson is far more likely to mix in kicks to the body (and eventually head). If they stay standing, the volume and slight range advantage will favor Thompson in the long run. Grappling Matchup: While neither fighter attempts many takedowns, Whittaker does have more of a history of submissions than Thompson. A bit of game theory would suggest that although Whittaker has attempted only one takedown to date in the UFC, he may resort to that in this fight should he run into problems on his feet. That attacks an apparent weakness for Thompson, one that was exploited in a fight against Matt Brown who employed vicious ground and pound to win a decision despite being outstruck by Thompson in each round. Neither fighter is advanced in jiu-jitsu credentials, but Thompson has specifically focused on improving his ground game after the loss to Brown. We may not see this development if the fight doesn’t hit the mat, so it remains a tough call if it does. Reed’s Pick: Thompson by Decision (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: Thompson gets a few edges in the striking department, but it’s a close overall matchup. Neither fighter has ever been finished with strikes, and Whittaker has the Youth and chin resiliency to withstand a few strikes that slip through. Pace and cage control will be the key to this matchup. To pull off the upset, Whittaker will have to either change levels and get close, or find a way to keep pace and do damage with his counters – a hard task against a long-range striker like Thompson. The over is currently -135 for 2.5 rounds, the under +105. Welterweights finish about half their fights inside the distance so this line is suggesting these fighters are a little less likely than usual to finish the fight early. I agree with that assessment, as neither fighter has been finished in a loss, and they are more likely to duke it out on their feet for three rounds. Expecting one to catch the other and finish the fight is a risky call. So overall, I’m sticking with a straight up lean towards Thompson. Interestingly, the Fight Goes the Distance is only -120, slightly better than a straight up pick. For a smaller and more focused play, Thompson by Decision is currently +200.