UFC Fight Night 36 Date: February 15, 2014 Arena: Arena Jaragua City: Jaragua do Sul, Brazil Featherweight bout: Andy “Little Axe” Ogle (+450) vs Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (-600) Fight Breakdown: Getting things started for the UFC Fight Night 36 main card will be a featherweight match-up between a Brit and a Brazilian, when Andy “Little Axe” Ogle takes on Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira. Ogle is a huge underdog in this contest at +450 ($100) with Oliveira being a big favorite at -600 ($600 to win $100) according to Several Bookmakerss. ANDY “LITTLE AXE” OGLE (9-3 MMA, 1-2 UFC) is set to make his fourth appearance inside the Octagon, and may have his back against the wall. Ogle has never been a mentally strong fighter, so the added pressure may prove to be too much for him. It could also be that he throws all caution to the wind and gives it his all. Either could happen, but I think the former is more likely. Like in most of his fights, Ogle will be entering this one with a disadvantage in both height and reach. He is a decent kickboxer who has above average wrestling skills. He is a good grinder when he is focused, which he was not in the first two rounds of his last bout against Cole Miller, as he was displaying poor fight IQ. However, in the third round of action, he made it his fight, and took the round on the judges’ scorecards, but it was too little, too late. If he had tried to do what he did in round one what he did in round three, he could have walked away with the unanimous nod instead of Miller. The Miller loss was on the heels of a very dominant unanimous decision victory over Josh Grispi. In his UFC debut, Ogle dropped a controversial split decision to Akira Corassani. I felt Ogle convincingly won the fight, and Corassani himself looked incredibly surprised to get his hand raised. Ogle is coming off fights against a pair of very talented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in Miller and Grispi, and he held his own against them. While Ogle has solid submission defense and has defended them against some top tier black belts, Charles Oliveira will be the best submission artist he has yet to face, and it will be a very big test for him. Ogle is a well-conditioned and determined mixed martial artist, and he will be prepared for a hard three rounds against the Brazilian. CHARLES “DO BRONX” OLIVEIRA (16-4-1 NC MMA, 4-4-1 NC UFC) will be making his tenth appearance inside the Octagon, but is currently riding a two-fight skid. He is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Frankie Edgar. It was a fight most predicted Edgar would score a finish, but the Brazilian held his own and earned new respect from MMA fans. Now in a must-win situation against Ogle, I think Oliveira should go to his bread and butter: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The incredibly talented black belt should take the fight to the mat, as soon as possible, where he will have the advantage. I think he is a decent striker who has been showing some improved and solid Muay Thai skills, but his ground game is just on another level, so it would be wise to use that. Ogle has displayed great submission defense in the past, but I think Oliveira would attack with so many different submissions that he would eventually transition into one and earn a tap. “Do Bronx” has displayed good cardio at 145 pounds, so I expect him ready to go a full fifteen minutes against Ogle. Fight Prediction: Oliveira may try to strike with him and out-kickbox him, but I think sooner or later the fight will hit the mat, where “Do Bronx” will constantly attack with submissions. Ogle won’t be able to keep up on the mat and will eventually get caught with something. If he does survive the attacks, I think Oliveira will do enough to take it on the judges’ scorecards. Gabe’s Pick: Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira by Submission (kneebar, 4:43 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Charles Oliveira (-600) parlayed with Joe Proctor (-185) and Ronaldo Souza (-470) for +118 5u to win 5.9u
