One of the prelims at UFC Fight Night 36 is a welterweight contest between Albert “Einstein” Tumenov and Ildemar “Marajo” Alcantara. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Tumenov as a -145 betting favorite (bet $145 to win $100) while Alcantara is a +125 underdog (bet $100 to win $125). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Tumenov at -185 and Alcantara at +140, meaning the betting public has come in early on the underdog Alcantara. I disagree with the early line movement here as I am picking the Russian, Tumenov, to get the victory. Here’s why. Tumenov (12-1) is making his UFC debut. The 22-year-old France-born Russian Tumenov, who is one of the youngest fighters in the UFC, is a very talented striker and eight of his 12 career wins have come via T/KO. He is very aggressive and has excellent hands as well as a good head kick. Also, he is a very fast starter and most of his wins have come in the first round. Against Alcantara, Tumenov will look to keep the fight standing and land the knockout blow. He will be at a reach disadvantage, but he should still be able to land shots against a fighter as hittable as Alcantara is. Alcantara (19-6) is so far 2-1 in the UFC with victories over Wagner Prado and Leandro Souza and a loss to Igor Araujo. A former light heavyweight, the 32-year-old Brazilian is one of the biggest welterweights in the UFC and possesses a long reach of 78″ for his division. However, the weight cut is tough for him and he has looked very mediocre in his two 170lb fights since his stunning kneebar submission victory over Prado in his UFC debut. Although he is a decent overall striker, against Tumenov Alcantara is going to look to get the fight to the ground because he won’t want to stand with the Russian. But that might be more difficult than some realize, and if he is forced to stand with a younger, faster fighter, it cant be good for his chances of winning. The Brazilian is very hittable on his feet, and Tumenov is a dangerous striker. I actually think that Alcantara’s chin is going to be very questionable at 170lbs and I think that Tumenov is going to light him up early and finish him with a highlight-reel knockout — potentially a head kick — to make a splash in his UFC debut. I see value in Tumenov at only -145 as I capped him as a 2-to-1 favorite for this fight, so I’m going to be making a play on the Russian. I think he’s going to knock out Alcantara and really make a statement here in his UFC debut, so the price is even better because the judges shouldn’t come into play. As for props, I lean the UNDER 1.5 rounds total at +150.
