The co-main event of UFC 168 is the rematch between UFC women’s bantamweight champion “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey and former Strikeforce women’s bantamweight champion Miesha “Cupcake” Tate. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers sees Rousey as a -800 betting favorite (bet $800 to win $100), while Tate is a +550 underdog (bet $100 to win $550). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Rousey at -1050 and Tate at +650, meaning so far there has actually been some action on the dog Tate. I completely disagree with the money coming in on Tate as I expect Rousey to walk right through her for a second time and once again defend her UFC women’s bantamweight title. Here’s why. Rousey (7-0) is a phenom in every sense of the word. The 26-year-old is so far undefeated in mixed martial arts, with seven wins coming by submission, and all of them coming via first-round armbar over fighters such as Tate, Liz Carmouche, Sarah Kaufman, Julia Budd, and Edian Gomes. We really have never seen anything like her in MMA before, and so it’s no surprise that the UFC has decided to make her the face of women’s MMA and the face of their women’s bantamweight division, because she’s not just a marketable face, but she’s also an amazing fighter. And now, this weekend at UFC 168, she gets the opportunity to beat Tate again, collect another pay cheque, and push her star power to a whole new level. Tate (13-4) is a former wrestling standout who has did well in her MMA career so far, winning the Strikeforce women’s bantamweight title from Marloes Coenen before dropping it to Rousey in her first title defence. The 27-year-old made the move to the UFC earlier this year along with the other Strikeforce women, but unfortunately for Tate she lost against Cat Zingano via TKO in a title eliminator at the TUF 17 Finale. Fortunately for Tate, though, Zingano got injured and since she was set to coach TUF opposite Ronda Rousey, the UFC decided instead to put Tate on the show because, as they say, the show must go on. I didn’t agree with the decision to put Tate on TUF, but I can understand the UFC wanted to build up the rivalry with Rousey some more, and they’ve did just that, because I know there are a lot of people who want to see Rousey tap Tate out again, and I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen this weekend. Although the rematch might last longer than their first matchup as Tate is always tough and scrappy, I think Rousey will eventually get her patented judo throw in, get Tate on the mat, and then move into a position to secure her patented armbar. -800 is a very big number and to me, no fighter in MMA with that price tag is worth playing because of the unpredictable nature of the sport. Instead, I think the props are where the value is. Rousey inside the distance is currently -489, which is nearly half the price of the regular moneyline, and there’s also a prop on the round doesn’t start round three at -315 that is worth a look, as is the Rousey points handicap at -550. Additionally, even though Rousey likely wins this fight by submission, there is a prop on Rousey by T/KO that pays +1240, and I definitely think that’s worth a flier.
