Yesterday we broke Nick Kalikas’s lines for the UFC on Fox 9 main card matchups. The event takes place this Saturday, and while those four fights will air on the big network starting at 8pm ET, there are seven fights earlier in the evening on both Facebook and Fox Sports 1. Headlining the preliminary bouts is a clash between Court McGee and Ryan LaFlare in the welterweight division, however, perhaps a more intriguing bout is the lightweight battle of Edson Barboza’s striking and Danny Castillo’s wrestling. Unlike the last few UFC cards, the prelims here are mostly comprised of organizational veterans rather than newcomers, although both Zach Makovsky and Alp Ozkilic make their flyweight debuts (not against each other). Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the remaining betting lines for UFC on Fox 9 at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox, 8pm ET) UFC Flyweight Title Demetrious Johnson -140 Joseph Benavidez +100 Urijah Faber -160 Michael McDonald +120 Chad Mendes -380 Nik Lentz +260 Joe Lauzon -210 Mac Danzig +160 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 5pm ET) Court McGee -160 Ryan LaFlare +120 Edson Barboza -315 Danny Castillo +235 Pat Healy -230 Bobby Green +170 Scott Jorgensen -185 Zach Makovsky +145 Sam Stout -265 Cody McKenzie +186 Roger Bowling -120 Abel Trujillo -120 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 4pm ET) Alp Ozkilic -210 Darren Uyenoyama +160 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Some very, very tricky fights on this undercard, which usually makes for some interesting opportunities once the public has gotten through with the lines. Court McGee’s volume striking has given opponents fits over his last few fights, wearing down Robert Whittaker and demolishing Josh Neer since his drop to welterweight. However, in Ryan LaFlare he faces possibly the best wrestler of his entire UFC tenure. LaFlare is facing a quick turnaround after his bout with Santiago Ponzinibbio, and he did tire in the third round of that fight, which is worrying here. This fight will definitely provide answers about the status of each fighter at 170lbs, and in my mind if I can get Ryan LaFlare at a big underdog price (which is possible since the public went against him in the Ponzinibbio fight). Barboza/Castillo is a similar style match-up, as Barboza obviously wants to keep this standing, while Castillo NEEDS to get it to the ground. Barboza isn’t a volume striker though, he punishes opponents with his power and Castillo doesn’t have the most stout chin in the world. This fight is meant as a litmus test to see if Barboza is ready to get back to potential contendership, as Castillo has already proven he’s not quite there. While I do think Castillo can get some takedowns here, Barboza is good at getting back to his feet, and I think he’ll use those skills to spend most of the time on the feet beating up Castillo’s legs en route to a TKO. Pat Healy is the quintessential grinder. He doesn’t have great speed, striking, or even phenomenal wrestling, but he has a great chin and never stops putting pressure on his opponent. I think that Healy will probably get hit by some shots against Green, but eventually he’ll get takedowns and dominate position on the ground. This fight is similar to Green’s UFC debut against Jacob Volkmann, only I don’t see Healy inexplicably gassing here. There seems to be a decent perception that Green has a good shot here, so I’m hoping that gets reflected in the line movement, as I think he’s going to struggle. Makovsky is an underdog that I’m going to seriously consider. When he fought and won the RFA flyweight title a little over two weeks ago, I wrote this: “In Makovsky’s career, he has only faltered when faced with a vastly superior talent (Eduardo Dantas) or a bigger wrestler who can overpower him (Anthony Leone).” It still holds true now, and while Jorgensen is somewhat bigger, I don’t think he really checks either box here. My biggest concern for Makovsky is the short turnaround, as despite not taking much damage in his last bout, he will be fighting twice in just three weeks. People have long been calling for Jorgensen to drop to 125, and he finally has, but his results at 135 were so mixed that it’s tough to get a read on where he will fit in. His only losses in the UFC were to Urijah Faber, Eddie Wineland and Renan Barao, all top fighters; but his wins were against John Albert, Jeff Curran and Ken Stone, none of whom are still with the organization. I’ll have to wait to see where this line goes, but I think a lot of people are overlooking Makovsky here. A fight I have much less to say on is Stout/McKenzie. With Stout’s improved wrestling, I think he’s going to dominate and likely stop Cody McKenzie. We’ve seen McKenzie stopped with body shots before, and Stout has a wicked left hook to the body which could do the trick here. I just don’t think McKenzie has the wrestling to get this to the ground, and on his feet he’s severely outgunned. We’ve already seen Bowling/Trujillo once, and Bowling was getting the better of it aside from a few flurries from Trujillo. His cardio is always a concern once fights get into deep waters, but my eyes didn’t lie to me the first time, and Bowling did have a slight edge. There wasn’t a huge gulf between these guys and this line reflects that. But if it gets up to even or plus money it’s hard not to like Bowling. Finally, last week we saw a stunning flyweight debut by Justin Scoggins, and while I don’t think Alp Ozkilic has quite the same upside, he is another young flyweight who is probably going to tip over the apple cart of more established veterans. With his combination of wrestling and developing boxing, he’s a bad matchup for Darren Uyenoyama. You may have to get in early to get a good price on him, but I give him a significant edge over Uyenoyama.
