This Saturday was meant to be a landmark for Bellator, as it was scheduled to be the company’s first ever PPV. The organization stacked the card to the point that the rest of its season nine schedule suffered a bit, and one week prior to the card we received news that headliner Tito Ortiz had to pull out of his bout with Quinton Jackson due to injury. Still, this is quite possibly Bellator’s best card ever — and may in fact be better without Ortiz/Rampage — given the three remaining title fights. Michael Chandler and Eddie Alvarez will rematch their epic November 2011 bout where Chandler wrested the belt away from Chandler. Pat Curran puts his featherweight title on the line against Daniel Straus, in a bout that is a rematch of a 2009 fight which Curran won by KO. To continue the trend of rematches, Emanuel Newton and Muhammed Lawal will square off for a second time as ‘King Mo’ attempts to avenge his spinning back fist defeat from February of this year. Lines have already been released for Chandler/Alvarez and Newton/Lawal. Both fighters who were underdogs in the original matchups came through with victories. While Chandler has received respect based on that first win and is now a favorite in the rematch, Newton is still a big underdog to Lawal. Currently Chandler is a -225 favorite (bet $225 to win $100) with Alvarez a +185 underdog (bet $100 to win $185). Lawal is a large -600 favorite with the comeback at +400 on Newton. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the remaining lines for Bellator 106 at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– Bellator Lightweight Title Michael Chandler -300 Eddie Alvarez +220 Interim Bellator Light Heavyweight Title Muhammed Lawal -505 Emanuel Newton +335 Bellator Featherweight Title Pat Curran -310 Daniel Straus +230 Fight Master Tournament Final Joe Riggs -190 Mike Bronzoulis +150 Akop Stepanyan -125 Mike Richman -115 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD Jesse Juarez -175 Joe Williams +135 Brandon Halsey -260 Hector Ramirez +180 Mike Guymon -190 Aaron Miller +150 Cleber Luciano -300 Joe Camacho +220 Josh Smith -185 Darren Smith +145 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: While I thought the opening line in Chandler/Alvarez was fair and it kept me off either side, the action that has brought Chandler down to nearly 2-to-1 was surprising, and there’s definitely reason to bet Chandler now. As far as the Newton/Lawal fight, there’s no way I can recommend betting Lawal after their first fight. Yes, he has a wrestling advantage here, but many people forget that Newton was soundly outstriking him prior to the spinning back fist, as that gets most of the press. If Lawal comes out with a good gameplan, he should be able to win this fight, but if he wants to prove he’s a better striker than Newton, he’s going to be in a lot of trouble. That’s definitely not a -600 favorite you should want to back. In the featherweight title bout, I really like Curran. He’s got a striking advantage, better BJJ and experience against superior competition. Daniel Straus has improved a great deal since his last fight with Curran, but aside from being a durable grinder he doesn’t have the skills to match up with the champion. Straus could win a couple of rounds with takedowns and control, but in the end I expect Curran’s fight-changing power to make the difference. The ‘Fight Master’ finale seems pretty simple to breakdown. Bronzoulis has knockout power, but not a ton else. He was struggling against the level of competition on the show, while Riggs was breezing through it. Riggs has already fought and beat a higher level of competition, and seems to have a second wind in his MMA career. I see him as the more skilled fighter, but his chin makes it difficult to back him. Finally, the opening bout of this card should be highly entertaining, as both Stepanyan and Richman love to throw leather. Stepanyan is the more diverse of the two strikers, and that gives him a bit of an edge on the feet, but his grappling is a big liability, and that presents an interesting opportunity for Richman to use a different part of his game here. If the line moves so that Stepanyan is an underdog, he could be worth a play, but like Riggs in the previous fight, it’s hard to put money on a guy who is such a liability in a particular area.
