UFC Fight Night 30 Date: October 26, 2013 Arena: Phones4u Arena City: Manchester, England Featherweight bout: Cole Miller (-170) vs Andy Ogle (+150) Fight Breakdown: The Facebook preliminary portion of UFC Fight Night 30 will feature a featherweight contest between The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) season three contestant Cole Miller and TUF: Live contestant Andy Ogle. Miller is currently the favorite heading into this bout at -170 ($170 to win $100), while the kickback on the underdog Ogle is +150 ($100 to win $150) at Several Bookmakerss. COLE MILLER (19-8 MMA, 8-6 UFC) will be looking to notch his 20th professional mixed martial arts win in his 15th Octagon appearance, as he looks to save himself from receiving a pink slip from the promotion. Miller trains out of American Top Team in Coconut Creek, F.L., and is one of the proudest representatives of the camp. Miller’s skills on the feet are average at very best, but he is incredibly talented on the ground. He is a threat every time the fight hits the mat and the fact that 14 of his 19 professional victories come by way of submission goes a long way to prove that sentiment. In my opinion, Miller has been on a decline since dropping down to the featherweight division, where you’d figure he would do better than he was doing at lightweight. Unfortunately, that has not been the case. His size advantage has not even played a small factor in his match-ups, as he has gone 1-3 in the division. Miller’s cardio seems to be hit or miss, as he is sometimes able to go 15 minutes without tiring, while other times he’s already gassing in the second round. Another thing to note about Miller is that he does not have great fight IQ. He does not do what is necessary to produce the best result for himself. He does not make the smartest game-plans for his match-ups, and worst of all, he does not use his size and reach advantage. ANDY OGLE (9-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) will be making his third Octagon appearance, following a dominant unanimous decision victory over Josh Grispi. The win came after a split decision loss to Akira Corassani in his featherweight debut, a fight which most believed Ogle clearly won. I personally felt it was a robbery; even Corassani himself looked surprised when they called his name. Ogle bounced back from that sour decision with a dominant performance over Grispi, and he looks to put a win streak together with a victory over The Ultimate Fighter season five veteran. Ogle will be at a size and reach disadvantage heading into this bout, though he will have a cardio advantage, not to mention the hometown advantage. The 24-year old Brit is a good kickboxer with solid wrestling skills. He is powerful, works great takedowns, and is a real grinder. Miller is a step up in competition for Ogle, but he will be fully prepared to pull off the upset in front of his home crowd. Fight Prediction: I see Ogle getting the better of Miller on the feet and on the mat for fifteen minutes of action. Gabe’s Pick: Andy Ogle by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Andy Ogle +150 and Ogle by Decision when the line is released.
