UFC 166 Date: Octber 19, 2013 Arena: Toyota Center City: Houston TX Heavyweight bout: Gabriel Gonzaga (+185) vs Shawn Jordan (-225) Fight Breakdown: The main card for UFC 166 will feature a heavyweight match-up between UFC veteran Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga and Strikeforce veteran Shawn “The Savage” Jordan. Gonzaga is the underdog in this bout at +185 ($100 to win $185), while “The Savage” is the favorite at -225 ($225 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. GABRIEL “NAPAO” GONZAGA (15-7 MMA, 10-6 UFC) is coming off a 17 second knockout win over Dave Herman at UFC 162 just three months ago, which makes him 3-1 in the promotion since returning after being released. The lone loss came at the hands of Travis Browne; he went for a takedown on Browne, who began delievering elbows to his head. Gonzaga tried to appeal the loss because he felt the blows to his head were illegal, but the commission did not see it his way. “Napao” is a talented Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner with an ever-improving game on the feet. He throws decent hands and excellent kicks. The kicks go without saying, as he owns a headkick knockout over Mirko Cro Cop on his professional mixed martial arts career resume. The 34-year old is a definite finisher. Every time he enters the Octagon, his goal is to stop the fight. He has only made it to the judges scorecards once in his 22-fight career, and the result of that was a loss, against Brendan Schaub. That may have to do with the fact that his conditioning is poor. He generally gasses in the second half of the fight, so if he doesn’t get an early finish, his chances of winning diminishes, especially if his opponent has good cardio, as was the case with Schaub. He will certainly be at a cardio disadvantage in this bout, as well, so he should have his regular game play of looking for the early finish. SHAWN “THE SAVAGE” JORDAN (15-4 MMA, 3-1 UFC) will be making his fifth appearance inside the Octagon, riding a very impressive two fight win streak with two TKO finishes over two tough heavyweights in Mike Russow and Pat Barry. Jordan is an athletic freak and proved to be too much for Russow and Barry. He also scored a TKO win over Oli Thompson in his promotional debut, with his lone loss coming against veteran heavyweight Cheick Kongo in a very uneventful 15-minute match-up that almost entirely took place against the cage. The poor performance against Kongo dropped his stock, but he rebounded very impressively with the aforementioned TKO victories. Jordan is a former football player and is very fast for a heavyweight; he might very well be the fastest and most athletic heavyweight in the Ultimate Fighting Championship. “The Savage” has a solid submission game and possesses serious power behind his hands. Training out of Jackson-Winklejohn MMA in Albuequrque, NM, his striking gets better and better, fight to fight. Having his camp at altitude certainly benefits his cardio. He is one heavyweight who is capable of going at it for all 15 minutes without gassing, and I believe he will undoubtedly have the cardio advantage heading into this bout against Gonzaga. Fight Prediction: I think Gonzaga will fail to find any success in the early going of the fight, being unable to get anything going. Jordan will get the better of him, until he ultimately finds a finish. Gabe’s Pick: Shawn Jordan by TKO (1:11, round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Plays: Shawn Jordan -225 for 5u, Jordan ITD -134 for 3u, and Under 1.5 rounds -115 for 2u
