Big Marley’s UFC 277 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Texas, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $800,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Michael Morales $9,500

This is going to be Morales or pass for me in all formats. If I can afford him then I do like him in GPPs, but I would try to make it a point to afford him in cash games. He is the safest play on the slate, and he should have the edge anywhere the fight goes. He could get an early KO and score 100+ or he could even wrestle heavily and score well in a decision. He is my cash game play of the week though because I like him more than the other $9k plays and I would be surprised if he lost where I would not be if the other $9k options lost.

GPP fight of the week – Drew Dober $9,000 vs Rafael Alves $7,200

I love this fight for DK, and we have a -225 FDNGTD line. Both guys can finish and score 100+ here so this is a great fight to load up on. If Alves wins, he might be a lock for the optimal lineup because it should be an early finish. Dober can finish in any round though and he can land decent volume and maybe knock downs along the way. Dober is my preferred play, but I want this fight in close to ¾ of my GPP lineups. I wouldn’t want to trust their floors in cash games, but this is a top fight to target in GPPs and I don’t think the judges will be needed.

Underdog play of the week – Derrick Lewis $8,000

This is close to an all-in GPP fight with its -650 FDNGTD line. We also have a +100 Fight won’t start Round 2 line. If either guy wins a decision, then they won’t score well and that is the reason to not go a full 100%. I do want it in at least 80% of my lineups though. I do slightly favor Pavlovich to get the win, but Lewis is live for a KO in any round and if he gets it in the 1st round then he will be on the $200k lineup. The line has shifted towards Pavlovich so that should boost his ownership and maybe it lowers Lewis’ more than it should.

Fade of the week – Magomed Ankalaev $9,400

This is a fight that I might fade and hope it goes the distance. It is -135 to go to decision and I would expect Ankalaev to win, but not score near 10x if that is the case. He can land takedowns and spend time in top control and that would help his score. He could also just look to strike because he is the better striker, but he won’t score well with that game plan unless he gets an early KO. Even a 2nd round KO might not be enough at $9.4k. I probably take my chances and fade Ankalaev and take my shots on the other expensive fighters.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 214-205 for +233.73u (+$23,373) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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