Big Marley’s UFC 265 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:

Scoring

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card back in the big cage. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $750,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Johnny Munoz – $9,100

I was going to pick Gane as my cash game play of the week, but he has a lower floor with Lewis’ KO power. If we have single digit points from Gane with no stack, we are most likely losing cash games. I think Munoz has a higher floor and just as high of a ceiling. I think he is the better fighter everywhere here, but he can dominate this fight on the mat, and he has one of the highest ceilings if he can do that. He is +120 ITD but I think he can score well in a decision win as well. I also like saving the $400 from Gane and maybe that gets us up to a better underdog that we like more.

GPP play of the week – Alonzo Menifield – $9,200

Menifield might be a core play for me this week. I think the 1st round KO is the most likely outcome in this fight and that 1st round finish is lined at +135. I think it could happen in less than 1 minute and break the slate. The issue is that he needs to get the 1st round KO at this price. I don’t expect him to be high volume and I don’t know that he wants to go to the ground at all in this fight. He should just be trying to take Herman’s head off and I like the ceiling from him more than Gane and Fiziev for that early KO potential. He is boom/bust for DraftKings but that is what we like for GPPs.

Underdog play of the week – Victoria Leonardo – $7,400

Leonardo is the best value on the slate with her $7.4k DraftKings price tag and -110 betting line. She looks to be the better striker and wrestler in this matchup, and she is more aggressive as well. There are a lot of unknowns on the Gatto side, but a submission looks like her best chance at a win. If she doesn’t get it, Leonardo is more likely to win a decision and this line value makes her a solid DraftKings play for cheap.

Fade of the week – Jose Aldo – $8,600

Aldo needs a KO to score well in this fight because he isn’t high paced enough to score well in a decision. He won’t be going for takedowns, and he doesn’t rack up 100+ strikes, we the KO is the only way I see him making the optimal lineup. Even if he gets a KO, it needs to be early for that 100+ score. His name will carry ownership and I would rather just fade instead of getting any leverage.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 172-159 for +224.67u (+$22,467) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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