If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Scoring
| Moves | |
| Significant Strikes | +0.5 Pts |
| Advance | +3 Pts |
| Takedown | +5 Pts |
| Reversal/Sweep | +5 Pts |
| Knockdown | +10 Pts |
| Fight Conclusion Bonuses | |
| 1st Round Win | +90 Pts |
| 2nd Round Win | +70 Pts |
| 3rd Round Win | +45 Pts |
| 4th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| 5th Round Win | +40 Pts |
| Decision Win | +30 Pts |
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Giga Chikadze – $9,300
I have never been interested in rostering Giga on DraftKings. Even when he was a huge favorite but priced as one of the cheapest underdogs, and he was 70+% owned. However, I do have interest in Giga this week because I think he gets a knockout. It could come early as well so I am ok paying up for him as the highest priced guy in any format as a -770 favorite. Giga ITD is -170 and for him to win in round 1 is lined at +155. This is a mismatch on the feet and Giga should be able to put it to Simmons but he is my cash game play because he is the “safest” play on the board and some of these other big favorites have much lower floors.
GPP play of the week – Alexandr Romanov – $9,000
Romanov is my favorite play on the slate, and he is a core play for me. He is going to look to take Rogerio down early and finish him with GNP or a submission. I think he can and will do that and he has the best chance at 100+ as well as the highest ceiling on the slate. He scored 148 DK points in his UFC debut and this is the matchup the UFC scheduled for him originally. I think he has similar success here and this is an all-in fight with him being close to an all-in type play. He does have a low floor because he could get knocked out early in round 1 and that is why he is my GPP play of the week where there is no difference in him scoring 0 or 40 in a loss. We need a high scoring win from him in GPPs to have any chance at $100k so boom/bust is what we want, and I think there is a lot more boom than bust in this play.
Underdog play of the week – Ramiz Brahimaj – $7,700
I expect Brahimaj to be very popular this week, but it is chalk I plan on eating. This betting line has tightened since the salaries were released and now Brahimaj is sitting at +120. If he wins, I think he will score well because it will likely be grappling heavy and possibly an early submission. Brahimaj is an aggressive grappler who will sell out for takedowns and the submission. If he gets it, he scores well. If he doesn’t, he probably loses. He has one of the most realistic chances at 90+ points as an underdog though so I do like Brahimaj in all formats and I will pick him to get the submission upset against Griffin.
Fade of the week – Max Griffin – $8,600
All of the reasons I mentioned for liking Brahimaj are all reasons I don’t like Max Griffin here as the favorite. I think the only way Griffin can score highly would be from a 1st or 2nd round KO. He will be very low owned so if you want a sneaky play shooting for that $100k then he is in play. He just won’t make any of my lineups because I like all the other favorites more. He does have negative value with his betting line dropping but he is also mispriced on DraftKings making it even more negative value. Every fight salary usually totals $16.2k and with Brahimaj listed at $7.7k, that should have made Griffin $8.5k but for some reason he is $100 more. That is just another reason to not roster Griffin this week and even if he does win it probably only kills us if it is in round 1.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 146-123 for +238.53u (+$23,853) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
