MMAOB staff writer Adam Martin takes a deeper look at the main event of UFC on ESPN+ 40, a five-round light heavyweight bout between Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira. The event takes place on Saturday, November 7 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Thiago Santos (-240)
Santos (21-7) is the No. 1 ranked light heavyweight in the UFC. The 36-year-old Brazilian has been in the UFC since 2013, going 13-6 overall while fighting at 185lbs and 205lbs. At middleweight, Santos had a 10-5 record with wins over the likes of Jack Hermansson, Anthony Smith, Kevin Holland, Nate Marquardt, and Gerald Meerschaert, but also some bad losses to the likes of Eric Spicely and David Branch. Since moving up to 205lbs, Santos is 3-1 with wins over current UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz, Jimi Manuwa, and Eryk Anders, with his lone loss coming by split decision to former champion Jon Jones. Santos injured both of his knees during that fight and hasn’t fought in 16 months. If the KO artist (15 wins by knockout) can get back to the form he showed against Jones and Blachowicz, there’s no reason to believe he can’t knock out Teixeira. But if he shows signs of ring rust and wear-and-tear from the injury, it could be a bad night for him.
Glover Teixeira (+200)
Teixeira (31-7) is the No. 3 ranked light heavyweight in the UFC. The 41-year-old Brazilian has been a member of the UFC roster since 2012 and he has gone 14-5 in the Octagon since then. Some of his most notable wins include Anthony Smith, Ryan Bader, Misha Cirkunov, Jared Cannonier, Rashad Evans, Quinton Jackson, and Ovince Saint-Preux. He also has losses to Jon Jones, Anthony Johnson, Alexander Gustafsson, Corey Anderson, and Phil Davis. Teixeira is one of the oldest fighters in the division but he has been fighting at a high level. Teixeira enters this fight against Santos on a four-fight win streak and a win over Santos could be what it takes to get him another UFC title shot. Teixeira has been one of the best light heavyweights in the world for years and with his combination of knockout power (18 knockout wins) and submissions (eight submission wins), he is one of the most well-rounded and dangerous fighters at 205lbs despite his age.
Fight Breakdown: This should be a great fight that I could see end in a couple of different ways. The odds suggest Santos is the clear favorite here and with his KO power and Teixeira’s aging chin, there is certainly the chance he gets a quick finish. On the other hand, Teixeira could choose to take this fight to the ground where he would be at a huge advantage as far as the grappling goes. If the fight hits the mat, Teixeira could win by ground-and-pound or submission. And who knows, maybe Teixeira could land the KO blow on the feet. Considering he has multiple paths to victory and Santos is coming off of a long injury-induced layoff, I actually kind of like Teixeira here as a +200 underdog.
Prediction: Glover Teixeira wins by submission
