UFC 164 Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI Saturday, August 31, 2013 Lightweight title bout (five rounds): Benson Henderson (-115) vs. Anthony Pettis (+105) Fight Breakdown: The main event of UFC 164 is a five-round lightweight bout between UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson and No. 1 contender Anthony Pettis. Henderson is currently a -115 betting favorite (bet $115 to win $100) while Pettis is a +105 underdog (bet $100 to win $105) at Several Bookmakers. Henderson (19-2) is the UFC lightweight champion and he’s defeated Frankie Edgar, Nate Diaz and Gilbert Melendez in his last three title defenses to affirm his position as a pound-for-pound great. However, the wins over Edgar and Melendez were very controversial and many call Henderson a “paper champion.” Still, the 29-year old knows how to get his hand raised, and he does it by being solid in every area of the game. A strong wrestler, Henderson also throws vicious kicks and he is also very tough, having never been finished in his time with the WEC and UFC. Henderson has won seven-straight fights in the UFC since the loss to Pettis at WEC 53, and if he can defeat Pettis, he will prove all the doubters wrong and reaffirm his place as the No. 1 lightweight fighter in the world. Pettis (16-2) took the fight against Henderson on short notice after TJ Grant pulled out with a concussion. But Pettis definitely earned his shot at the title with his recent kick KOs over Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon. The 26-year-old Milwaukee resident is the best and most dangerous striker in the UFC lightweight division as he possesses ridiculous creativity, power, and athleticism and uses it to knock his opponents out in highlight-reel fashion with never-before-seen head kicks. He’s also very good on the ground with his submissions. Pettis won the pair’s first fight at WEC 53 and he knows the blueprint to defeating Henderson, as he’s did it once and he can definitely do it again. One of the most exciting fighters in the UFC, Pettis is an absolute beast and if his knee injury that forced him to pull out of the Jose Aldo fight doesn’t give him trouble, he can definitely beat Henderson again. Fight Prediction: This is going to be a hell of a fight and it’s definitely going to be a “Fight of the Year” contender. I see both men going balls to the wall for all five rounds, and I see it hitting the scorecards. Although it could be a sweat, I think Pettis is going to be the better striker throughout the fight and I think the judges will side with him as Pettis wins the UFC lightweight championship in front of his hometown of Milwaukee. Adam’s Pick: Pettis via decision (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: At +105, I believe that there is value on Pettis, especially considering he won the pair’s first fight. Although the judges love Henderson and I could see them ripping off Pettis, I honestly believe the chances of that happening are a lot less likely in Pettis’ hometown, so I think he’s worth a medium play at the current line of +105. As well, I like Pettis wins via decision at +300 for round robins.
