UFC 164 “Fight of the Night” Betting Props UFC 164 is coming to us Saturday, August 31st, live from Milwaukee, WI. The event will feature ten fights, and will then be headlined by a main event and a co-main event, filling up a 12-fight card. The five-fight main card will be live on Pay Per View, while four preliminary bouts will air live on Fox Sports 1 and three fights will stream live via Facebook and YouTube. UFC 164 is expected to produce a number of highly anticipated, very exciting fights. The option to bet which of the fights will earn the $50,000 “Fight of the Night” Bonus is only available at Several Bookmakerss. I believe the top contenders for this prize are: Benson Henderson vs Anthony Pettis +150 — The first time these two went at it was at the WEC finale in Glendale, AZ three years ago in a fight that produced fireworks and most notably, the now famous “showtime kick”. I expect the first round of this fight to really be the sixth round of the last fight; both fighters will be aggressive and looking to leave a definitive impression on the judges and fans. I am expecting five rounds of excitement here, but my gut tells me there might be a finish, and contrary to popular opinion, I feel it may be Bendo getting the job done. Together they own a combined five Fight of the Night awards in their UFC/WEC careers; four belonging to Henderson, and one to Pettis. Pettis’ only bonus being his fight versus Henderson. Chad Mendes vs Clay Guida +750 — Chad Mendes used to be one of the Decision-Makers in the UFC and the WEC before that, as he would use his wrestling to control and beat up opponents for fifteen minutes. As of late, Mendes has begun honing his striking skills, especially since the addition of Head Striking Coach Duane Ludwig at Team Alpha Male. His three previous fights are a testament to that statement, as he has finished all of them by knockout inside the first round. Clay Guida will be one of Mendes’ toughest challenge’s to date, as he is a former (successful) lightweight who recently dropped down to the featherweight division. I think there is a decent chance we will see Guida return to his fan-favorite ways and for Mendes to put on the most thrill-filled performance of his career. Guida has five Fight of the Night bonuses under his belt, while Mendes has none. But with Mendes’ newly found striking skills and recent knockout performances, this greatly increases the chances of this match-up producing unforgettable fireworks. Dustin Poirier vs Erik Koch +425 — Both these guys are generally very exciting fighters who always fight their heart out and look for the finish. They definitely are not “decision fighters”. They were both at one point on the brink of a title shot; Poirier was one win away and Koch already had gotten a title shot but had to pull out of the fight due to injury, and has since been back on the hunt; now, they are both coming off losses to two of the top 5 featherweights in the division. If that tells me anything, it’s that they both feel like they have something to prove and are looking to showcase their skills, put on an exciting fight, and win in impressive fashion. Dustin Poirier is the owner of one Fight of the Night bonus; Erik Koch has none. Louis Gaudinot vs Tim Elliott +525 — This is a fight between two very talented flyweights. They are both fast, skilled, and real fun to watch. This will likely be a fight where you’ll find yourself at the edge of your seat due to the high paced action of the opening round. Dana White loves giving the Fight of the Night bonus to flyweight fights; Tim Elliott’s fight versus Jared Papazian is among the few flyweight wars to have received the bonus. Together, Gaudinot and Elliott own two Fight of the Night bonuses; one, each. Nikita Krylov vs Soa Palelei +2500 — A battle between two heavyweights who like to push the pace. They’re both talented on the feet and on the mat. This fight will likely be very exciting for the round or two I’m expecting it to last and if there’s anything Dana White likes more than exciting flyweight fights, it’s exciting heavyweight fights. I think these two will deliver and at +2500, there is certainly enough value for a stab. I hit my recommended 3.5u Fight of the Night play of Condit/Kampmann +300 for the UFC Fight Night 27 card, and here I am again hoping to make it 2-0 — but this one is more of a gamble than the last. I was very confident about Condit/Kampmann. Here, I’m just moved by value. My 3.25*UNIT play for the Fight of the Night winner: Chad Mendes vs Clay Guida +750 for 1u, Dustin Poirier vs Erik Koch +425 for 2u, and Nikita Krylov vs Soa Palelei +2500 for .25u — If Mendes/Guida gets the award, we’re up 5.25u, if Porier/Koch wins, we’re up 3u, and if Krylov/Palelei gets the bonus, we’re up 3.25u. Clearly, Bendo/Pettis has the best chance of cashing but considering the number of great fights on the card and the +150 line, it doesn’t feel quite worth it. I would have taken it at +200, but am passing at +150, and going with the value I see in Mendes/Guida +750, Porier/Koch +425 and Krylov/Palelei +2500 in hopes that one of them will come through for us with a war more memorable than the one Bendo and Pettis will produce.
