In this article I will be breaking down the top 3 biggest favorites (per Several Bookmakers) and giving an assessment on whether they are Moneyline lock worthy, Parlay worthy, or a complete Pass. Though I may say a favorite is one of those first two options, my official bets may not reflect that. Alright, that’s pretty much it for the setup, let’s get into this.
Khamzat Chimaev (-335) vs John Phillips (+275)
Khamzat is coming into the UFC with a pretty easy matchup to get his feet wet on the big stage. When watching tape on Khamzat, it’s quite easy to know what he’s going to do right out the gate. Unfortunately for Phillips, I don’t think there’s much he can do to stop it. I think the best bet for this fight is actually the under which is currently lined at -150, given my hesitancy to bet debuting fighters. Khamzat also trains at All Stars which is the home of Alexander Gustafsson, but in particular it seems like Khamzat has been putting in a ton of work with former UFC fighter Reza Madadi. Chimaev seems like a sponge for knowledge and he knows not to play around much at all in there. It’s like he believes he’ll get paid more if he just goes in there and gets a finish immediately. With that said, outside of a Hail Mary punch, Phillips will get rag-dolled here. I don’t think it will last longer than a round either, which is why I like the under the most here. Phillips throws with a ton of power, but I think he’s just a step too slow at times. I see Khamzat avoiding the big shots coming his way as he closes the distance, gets the takedown, and proceeds to sink in a submission to notch a win in his UFC debut. A little too juicy for me to play straight though.
CHIMAEV: Parlay worthy
Alhassan (-335) vs Lazzez (+275)
Alhassan finally makes his long-awaited return to the octagon after a tumultuous 2-year period where he dealt with an unfortunate out-of-cage issue. Now that it’s all cleared up, Razak is back to reclaim his spot in this 170lb division. He’s taking on a newcomer in Lazzez who steps into the cage with a 9-1 record. Both of these guys are finishers but it seems like Alhassan looks for the finish much quicker than Lazzez. Though, if Lazzez senses his opponent is hurt, he aggressively goes after the finish. He will need to be careful here against the Welterweight Francis Ngannou and not run into anything if he has him on the ropes. I give Alhassan that nickname because all of his fights, except one, are of him absolutely starching his opponents in the first round. When he did get out of the first round, he was completely out-grinded and worked by Omari Akhmedov. The question marks around Alhassan outside of the first round make it difficult for me to ever play him straight and even to parlay him, depending on the opposition. This time around, I feel safe parlaying Alhassan as I believe Lazzez is still somewhat green and shows openings when he is striking. All it takes is one atomic bomb of a punch from Abdul to put anyone’s lights out. This time around, unfortunately, it will have to bee Mounir taking a cage nap within the first round.
ALHASSAN: Parlay worthy
Shore (-700) vs Phillips (+500)
Hot prospect Jack Shore steps into the Octagon for the second time against a returning Aaron Phillips who has managed to string together 5 wins in the last couple of years. Unfortunately for him though, Jack Shore is a very difficult stylistic matchup for him hence the giant number beside Jack’s name. Phillips has shown little to no takedown defense in recent footage and that spells trouble for him. Shore is a grinder who doesn’t mind taking 2.5 rounds to break you to eventually G&P or submit his way to victory. I do believe it will take over 1.5 rounds for Shore to get the finish, which is why the over is the most appealing line to me in this fight. I don’t see much resistance from Phillips in keeping Shore away from victory. Phillips will have the obvious striking advantage, but it’s not wide enough nor is his takedown defense good enough to keep this fight on the feet for long. It may not add much to your parlay, but I think Shore adds enough value to get the bang for your buck by adding him.
SHORE: Parlay worthy
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