Before one UFC event has even taken place, the full odds for the next one are ready to go, as UFC 164 takes place a mere three days following UFC Fight Night 27. The PPV card from Milwaukee features one of the most serendipitous main events we’ve seen in a long time. For the Benson Henderson-Anthony Pettis rematch to come to fruition, Pettis had to get injured to drop out of his August 3rd date with Jose Aldo at UFC 163, then TJ Grant had to get injured to fall out of the originally planned lightweight bout for this card and Pettis needed to be back in fight shape four weeks later than previously scheduled. All-in-all, it took a lot to get here, but the reward is a rematch of one of MMA’s classic fights. The odds for the main event have been out since days after the announcement of the fight, and they remain nearly a pick em, with Henderson a very slight -115 favorite and Pettis a -105 underdog, despite being the victor in their first fight. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the preliminary fights at Several Bookmakers to round out the rest of the card. Take a look (new lines bolded): ——————– MAIN CARD (PPV, 10 p.m. ET) UFC Lightweight Title Anthony Pettis +120 Benson Henderson -160 Frank Mir +175 Josh Barnett -245 Clay Guida +250 Chad Mendes -350 Ben Rothwell -130 Brandon Vera -110 Dustin Poirier +100 Erik Koch -140 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET) Jamie Varner -125 Gleison Tibau -115 Louis Gaudinot +120 Tim Elliott -160 Hyun Gyu Lim +165 Pascal Krauss -215 Chico Camus +135 Kyung Ho Kang -175 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 6:30 p.m. ET) Soa Palelei +100 Nikita Krylov -140 Ryan Couture +175 Al Iaquinta -245 Magnus Cedenblad +100 Jared Hamman -140 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: The trend of close matchmaking continues, as only two of the seven preliminary fights open with favorites over 2-to-1. That usually means two things, 1) We should be in store for some quality fights, and 2) There’s usually going to be some value in those close lines, especially after the public starts to move them. I could see as many as five underdogs on the preliminary card coming through, but I won’t be picking that many personally. At this point, I have slight leans towards Gaudinot, Camus (although after his last performance I would need a very juicy line in order to bet him), and Cedenblad, but wouldn’t argue to fervently with those picking Palelei or Tibau either. At this point, the best advice that I can give is to let the dust settle from UFC Fight Night 27, don’t rush into any plays, and perhaps leave a few open slots in some parlays to take advantage of as these lines start to move.
