There are a lot of preliminary matchups flying under the radar at UFC Fight Night 27, and one of those that really caught my eye for a bet is the middleweight matchup between Dylan Andrews of TUF 17 and Papy Abedi, who is making his UFC middleweight debut. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers sees Andrews as a -270 betting favorite (bet $270 to win $100) and Abedi as a +230 dog (bet $100 to win $230). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened Andrews at -265 and Abedi at +185, meaning that the public likes the Aussie in the fight and I can’t blame them as I believe they are on the right track as well. Here’s why. Andrews was nothing but impressive to me on TUF 17 and although he lost to the overrated Uriah Hall on the show and is in his mid 30s, I still knew he was a talented striker that was going to be undervalued and I made a winning bet on Andrews in his UFC debut at the finale against Jimmy Quinlan at plus money. I’m still not exactly sure what the public saw in Quinlan in that fight that kept the line that close, but whatever it was they don’t see it in Abedi and that’s why the line is so tilted in Andrews’ favor in this matchup. I’m assuming the line in this fight speaks more towards the betting public’s disdain for Abedi, who was awarded a BS decision against Besam Yousef at UFC on FUEL TV 9. Abedi was submitted in his two other UFC fights so really this guy should be 0-3 in the UFC and as a welterweight, too, and now for whatever reason he’s decided to move up to middleweight and the fighter who welcomes him to 185 pounds is an emerging beast in Andrews, who really should be able to crack Abedi’s questionable chin and finish him. Andrews doesn’t have much value at -270 as a straight bet, but combine him with one, two, or three of the other favorites on the card and he suddenly holds value as a reliable parlay key. I feel very good about Andrews in this spot and even though I wish he was priced closer to 2-to-1, the fact of the matter is he’s more than likely going to win this fight and at the end of the day MMA betting is all about picking the winners and the losers and that’s why I still like him for parlays even at the juiced-up price.
