Welterweight bout: Dylan Andrews (-270) vs Papy Abedi (+230) Fight Breakdown: The preliminary card for UFC Fight Night 27 features a welterweight bout between TUF 17’s Dylan Andrews and Sweden’s Papy Abedi. Andrews is currently the large favorite at -290 (bet $270 to win $100), while Abedi is the large underdog at +230 (bet $100 to win $230) at Several Bookmakerss. Dylan Andrews (15-4 MMA, 1-0 UFC) makes his second trip to the Octagon following a first round TKO victory over fellow TUF 17 contestant Jimmy Quinlan. However, I was not at all impressed with that win, because it was less about him winning and more about Jimmy Quinlan quitting. He did not want to be in that cage from before he even walked in it and badly wanted out. Rightfully so, the UFC cut him immediately after that horrendous performance. Unlike Quinlan, Andrews is a very tough fighter who is full of heart and has absolutely zero quit in him. One negative thing to note about Andrews is that Uriah Hall knocked him out from bottom position. Hall was easily controlling him in that bout and Papy Abedi is very powerful, much like Hall, so Andrews should be aiming to keep Abedi at range and landing strikes. His game plan should be to out-strike Abedi on the feet until he gasses, then pour it on for the finish in rounds two or three. Dylan Andrews is skilled all around but as the cliche goes, he’s not exactly excellent in any specific area of mixed martial arts. That said, he holds his own in every area and is always improving in every area as well. We didn’t really get a chance to see much of his improvement since being in the TUF house and I feel this fight will be his real showcase. Papy Abedi (9-2 MMA, 1-2 UFC) was making waves in Sweden and the rest of Europe, as he had gone on a 8-0 run and finishing 7 of those opponents inside the distance. The UFC really wanted to sign him but Abedi would not agree to fight any of the fighters they were suggesting to him, until finally the name Thiago Alves caught his attention. He agreed to the main card bout, in which he was making his welterweight debut. Abedi was looking good against Alves in the early going of the round but he very quickly ran out of gas and Alves took over and secured a rear naked choke for a very easy victory to add to his resume. Abedi looked like he stood a chance at beating Alves, but his poor conditioning really did him in. He followed that loss with a fight against James Head, which had a near-identical result. His last bout was versus Besam Yousef in Sweden just over four months ago. He won via controversial Split Decision; many believe he had lost that bout. In short, Papy Abedi has been a big bust for the UFC and will likely be cut with a loss here, unless they decide to keep him around for one more run on another Sweden card. Abedi is a very heavy handed southpaw who owns a black belt in Judo and a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He is actually a decent fighter but his cardio always costs him big. This fight is his return to the middleweight division and he should have a better gas tank now, but he will certainly still be at a cardio disadvantage against the very durable Dylan Andrews. Fight Prediction: After a close first round, I see Andrews pulling away in the second and third as Abedi gasses out. He could pour it on and finish him or just beat him en route to a comfortable Unanimous Decision. Gabe’s Pick: Dylan Andrews by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Dylan Andrews -270 for a small play. I also recommend it as a leg in a 3 team parlay with Tavares and Thatch for +150.
