One of the matchups that is flying under the radar at next week’s UFC Fight Night 27 card is a welterweight fight between TUF Smashes winner Robert Whittaker and TUF 11 winner Court McGee, a bout that I expect will end up being a war. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers sees Whittaker listed as -145 chalk (bet $145 to win $100, while McGee is a small +125 dog (bet $100 to win $125). When MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas released the opening line, Whittaker was -130 and McGee was -110, meaning the early public support has come in on the Aussie Whittaker. I believe the public may be on the wrong track. Here’s why. There is a lot of hype around Whittaker — who is young, improving and who has giant power in his fists — after he defeated TUF 16 winner Colton Smith with a third-round TKO at UFC 160. He was a big dog in that fight but I picked and bet him there because I thought he was being undervalued since the majority of the betting public didn’t watch TUF Smashes. And I turned out being right when Whittaker KOed Smith and cashed as a +200 dog. But in this fight against McGee, I believe Whittaker is overpriced and that it’s now McGee who is being undervalued. In fact, I believe McGee might even deserve to be a slight favorite. Think about it. McGee has way more experience against tougher opponents, he’s a huge welterweight, he has a great chin and cardio, he knows how to push the pace and he has both underrated striking and wrestling. I think McGee is a beast at 170 and with his well-rounded skillset I believe he’s a guy who can continue climbing up the welterweight ladder, and it all starts with a win over Whittaker next weekend in a bout that I believe favors McGee stylistically. Remember, even Smith was able to drop Whittaker and as we saw in McGee’s welterweight debut at UFC 157 against Josh Neer, he showed he has good power at 170 as he was able to hurt the tough Neer with body shots and outstrike him at an alarming rate. If he can replicate his performance against Neer, he might be able to upset Whittaker and make it look easy in the process. I can’t recommend a big play on McGee at the current odds, but if for some reason he hits +175 I would recommend a sizeable bet and at the current odds of +125 I do think he is great round robin material for a card that appears to be a good one to play small round robins considering all the live dogs.
