One of the most competitive fights on paper for next week’s UFC Fight Night 27 event is a bantamweight matchup between rising Mexican bantamweight Erik Perez and one of the division’s most sturdy veterans, Takeya Mizugaki. There is no betting line available for this fight as of yet but the odds should be listed as close to a Pick ’em based on the competitive nature of the fight. If my prediction is correct and the line indeed opens near even, I will be placing on a bet on young “Goyito.” Here’s why: The UFC and their lower-division are very high on Perez and after the 23-year old blasted his way through John Albert, Ken Stone and Byron Bloodworth, they have rewarded the Greg Jackson-trained fighter with a date against Mizugaki, who has been a perennial top 15 guy for a long time. It’s a fight that, if Perez wins, the UFC will have a second Mexican fighter other than Cain Velasquez on the roster and you would then expect the promotion would have a big event next year with both men on the card. When the UFC announced this fight, at first I thought it was a good opportunity to bet against Perez because I thought Mizugaki was too big of a step up in competition, but now, with the fight just days away, I actually think the opposite and will be making a play on Perez in this spot (depending on the line of course). Ask yourself this: Why would the UFC put Perez up against an opponent at this point of his career that they figured he couldn’t beat? The answer is they wouldn’t. They have seen something in Mizugaki’s game that they feel Perez can exploit, and that’s why they booked this fight; so Perez can finally get a respectable win on his record and so the UFC can start promoting him on more main cards. It’s the same situation we encountered last weekend when Conor McGregor fought Max Holloway. I personally cap Perez at -150 for this fight so if he is available at a Pick ’em price I definitely recommend laying a wager on him as I do believe he wins this fight and then gets an even bigger step up in his next outing against someone in the top 10. This is a dynamic young fighter and, training under Jackson, expect big things from “Goyito.”
