There’s a very intriguing welterweight matchup scheduled to take place next week at UFC Fight Night 27, and it’s a fight that is sure to draw plenty of interest from bettors. The fight I’m talking about is the matchup between TUF 17 winner Kelvin Gastelum, who will be fighting at 170 pounds for the first time since his split decision win at the finale over Uriah Hall, and Brian Melancon, who had a UFC debut for the ages back at UFC 162 when he brutally KOed Seth Baczynski at the bell to end the first round. The current betting odds for the fight on Several Bookmakers sees Gastelum as a -240 betting favorite (bet $240 to win $100), with the comeback on the underdog Melancon presently +200 (bet $100 to win $200). Although I am fond of Gastelum, I no longer see much value in him at -240. In fact, I believe there’s value on Melancon at +200, and I’ll tell you why. The reason why Gastelum is such a sizeable favorite in this fight is the fact he defeated the much-hyped Hall at the finale as a big dog and it was a win that obviously impressed the public, and it most definitely impressed me as well seeing as though I had a large bet on Gastelum in that fight. But after seeing Hall struggle with John Howard at UFC Fight Night 26, I’m not as impressed as much with Gastelum’s win anymore. Melancon, however, was nothing but impressive in his fight with Baczynski, a fight that opened my eyes to just how hard this guy hits. With Gastelum, for as impressive as he’s been for a 21 year old we haven’t really seen his chin tested yet and if Melancon can connect on it, I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if he could get the KO. I need to watch some more tape on both guys, but at the current odds I would recommend passing on Gastelum and instead look to place a small bet on Melancon inside the distance, which currently pays +475, as if he wins that’s likely to be the method and at the odds there is most definitely value on that prop.
