Matheus Nicolau
Age: 25
Nationality: Brazilian
MMA Record: 13-1-1
UFC Record: 3-0
Notable Wins: John Moraga, Louis Smolka
Notable Losses: Pedro Nobre
Last Fight: Decision win over Louis Smolka
Fighter Profile: A competitor on TUF Brazil 3, Nicolau has turned heads since joining the UFC as he’s undefeated in the promotion and looks like he could be the next big thing in the flyweight. He’s shown a complete game in the UFC with both a solid striking and solid grappling game. He’s young, too, and could improve quickly and get to that championship level in short order. The UFC clearly believes in him despite his failed USADA test a few years ago as the matchmakers are giving him a ranked opponent here in Ortiz. With a win, the UFC may push Nicolau right up into a top-five fight his next time out. He’s good already, but could get even better.
Dustin Ortiz
Age: 29
Nationality: American
MMA Record: 18-7
UFC Record: 7-5
Notable Wins: Justin Scoggins, Ray Borg, Alexandre Pantoja
Notable Losses: Jussier Formiga, Joseph Benavidez, John Moraga
Last Fight: Decision win over Alexandre Pantoja
Fighter Profile: One of the top gatekeepers in the flyweight division, Ortiz has mostly had success in the UFC as he has a winning record inside the Octagon, but he’s also never been able to break through and get that win that pushes him into the top-five. He’s a scrappy fighter who is capable of grinding his opponents out and pushing a brutal pace that breaks them, but he’s also shown flashes of finishing ability as well. Having said that, he also tends to lose when he faces a higher level of competition, and Nicolau is just that.
Fight Breakdown: Like most flyweight bouts, I’m expecting a very competitive fight between these two in a fight that likely goes the full 15-minute distance. Nicolau has been very impressive so far in the UFC while Ortiz has been solid, yet inconsistent. I think Ortiz is one of the toughest grinders in the division and he’s capable of beating almost anyone on any given day, but I don’t like the fact he’s unreliable. Nicolau, meanwhile, seems like someone who you want to have your money down on. In what should be a close fight, I’m going with the younger, more dynamic fighter to get the win, and I think Nicolau is going to edge out the decision in this one.
Prediction: Matheus Nicolau via decision
