UFC on FOX 8 KeyArena, Seattle, Washington Saturday, July 27, 2013 Welterweight bout: Rory MacDonald (-240) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+200) Fight Breakdown: The co-main event at UFC on FOX 8 is a welterweight bout between Rory MacDonald and Jake Ellenberger. MacDonald is a -240 favorite (bet $240 to win $100), while Ellenberger is a +200 underdog (bet $100 to win $200) at Several Bookmakers. MacDonald (14-1) is one of the top welterweight prospects the UFC has and yet he’s already amassed a terrific 5-1 record fighting in the Octagon, which is a key reason why many feel he may be the future of the division. The 24-year-old is a well-rounded mixed martial artist with excellent striking and a solid ground game, as well as a natural killer instinct that many of his peers lack. If just his second UFC fight ever, MacDonald took Carlos Condit to the brink of losing, proving just how much talented this young Canadian has. In his last fight against UFC Hall of Famer BJ Penn, MacDonald showed that his striking is at another level now and I expect him to show off his skills agains this weekend against Ellenberger. Ellenberger (29-6) is one of the heaviest hitters in the UFC welterweight division as he has collected 18 of his career wins by TKO, including five knockouts in the UFC over Nate Marquardt, Jake Shields, Sean Pierson, John Howard and Mike Pyle en route to a terrific 8-2 record in the Octagon. The 28-year-old is also a solid wrestler and trains at Reign with Mark Munoz. He also has a huge experience edge over MacDonald as he has fought all over the world and for a much longer time than his opponent has. Now you’re probably reading all of that and wondering why Ellenberger is the underdog in this fight, but it’s quite simple: his cardio and pacing have been a huge concern, and if this fight gets out of the first round he will be in big trouble. Fight Prediction: Rory MacDonald is going to have to weather the early storm of Ellenberger, but if he can do that he will have a huge edge when this fight hits the second and third rounds as Ellenberger’s cardio and pace are major concerns. Look for MacDonald to start teeing off on Ellenberger in the late second rounds and force the referee to intervene as he claims a TKO victory and moves on to a possible showdown with teammate and mentor, UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre. Adam’s Pick: MacDonald via TKO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: At -240, I believe that MacDonald is worthy of being in a parlay with one or two other fighters, perhaps Robbie Lawler and/or Ed Herman. MacDonald has more paths to victory in this fight and although Ellenberger does have that wicked power that can end a fight in one shot, MacDonald is more well-rounded and if he can survive Ellenberger’s early barrage he will win this fight by late stoppage or a clear decision. I also like the UNDER 2.5 rounds total (-105) as it protects you in case of an Ellenberger upset KO win.
