The UFC returns to Fox this weekend for its quarterly card on the big network. Due to the time of year, with no NFL Football to support the card from a marketing perspective, it will be interesting to see what kind of ratings a flyweight headliner will draw. At least the UFC and Fox haven’t shied away from the fact that this is in fact a fight between two 125lb fighters, as they did when Demetrious Johnson squared off with John Dodson at the beginning of the year. The flyweight title bout between Johnson and John Moraga isn’t the only high spot on this card however. Welterweight standouts Rory MacDonald and Jake Ellenberger will square off in a fight that is sure to have some title implications, heavy hitters Melvin Guillard and Robbie Lawler will look for knockouts, and Liz Carmouche makes her first appearance since dropping her title shot to Ronda Rousey back in February. The lines for those fights have all been opened at Several Bookmakers already, and today MMA Oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for the remaining bouts on the card. Check them out below: ——————– MAIN CARD (FOX) UFC Flyweight Title Demetrious Johnson -380 John Moraga +260 Rory MacDonald -170 Jake Ellenberger +130 Robbie Lawler -350 Bobby Voelker +250 Liz Carmouche -705 Jessica Andrade +435 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (FX) Jorge Masvidal -210 Michael Chiesa +160 Danny Castillo -165 Tim Means +125 Melvin Guillard -140 Mac Danzig +100 Daron Cruickshank -165 Yves Edwards +125 Ed Herman -350 Trevor Smith +250 Julie Kedzie -155 Germaine de Randamie +115 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (FACEBOOK) Justin Salas -190 Aaron Riley +150 John Albert -175 Yaotzin Meza +135 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: For nearly every UFC event I try to do tape study and come up with my own lines before the official ones come out. Looking at the UFC on Fox 8 Prelims, the biggest gap between my lines and the openers was 45 cents, and that was in the Castillo-Means fight. I had the fight as a dead even pick em, so Means at +125 presents a bit of value. Castillo’s avenue to win the fight is clear, and it is basically replicating the performance he had in his last outing against Paul Sass. Castillo took Sass down repeatedly in spite of the Brit’s dangerous ground game, so against a striker like Means you can bet he’ll be trying to control things on the floor. For Means, he simply needs to realize that no matter how busy he is from his back, he’s losing rounds there. It’s what cost him the Masvidal fight, and if he stays on his back against Castillo it will be the same thing. With his striking and Castillo’s not-so-solid chin however, he may not need to be on the feet for too long in order to do damage in this one. The only other line that holds some interest to me on these prelims is Justin Salas at -190. Aaron Riley has not fought since September 2011, and even when he was more active, his UFC wins have come over Joe Brammer, Shane Nelson, and George Gurgel (all by decision, as well). Earlier in his career, Riley was looked up as a guy who could take a lot of punishment and would put on exciting fights, but it seems his body is failing him far too frequently these days. I don’t necessarily think Salas is going to stop Riley in this bout (although if Riley broke his jaw again it wouldn’t shock me), but even beyond that he is the better wrestler and the far fresher fighter. These fighters are only one year different in age, but Riley has been fighting since 1997, while Salas’ career started in 2006. I think that will show on Saturday night, and at this price, Salas can work as either a leg in a two-team parlay, or even straight. Aside from the Herman/Smith fight, where it seems the UFC is trying to repay Herman for taking the bout against Jacare on Strikeforce’s final show, the other new lines — Cruickshank/Edwards, Kedzie/de Randamie, and Albert/Meza — all indicate closely matched fights. -Daron Cruickshank should be able to outdo Yves Edwards on the feet, and as always, Edwards’ chin is a concern at this point. -Kedzie/de Randamie all depends on if the fight takes place on the ground (where it favors Kedzie), or standing (where it favors de Randamie), and at this point still early in the Dutch fighter’s MMA career, it’s hard to tell where her takedown defense will be. -Albert/Meza comes down to whether John Albert, who is one of the most exciting one-round fighters in the UFC today, can get the finish within the first three minutes. After that it seems his gas tank is on empty, while Meza is no stranger to going deep in fights. Perhaps a look at the under 1.5 or 2.5 rounds, when those come out, could be worth a look in this fight. Stay tuned to MMA Oddsbreaker throughout the week, as the MMA Oddscast, At Odds MMA Show, and our usual plethora of articles will help you break down UFC on Fox 8 even further from a betting perspective.
