UFC on FOX 8 takes place this Saturday night at KeyArena in Seattle, WA, and Several Bookmakers is offering a number of prop bets on all the fights that can make you a lot of cash if you get your pick right. I’ve looked at all the prop bets on the board, and here are five that I believe have a chance of cashing and that I think you should keep your eye on: Moraga Points Handicap +9.5 (-160) John Moraga vs. Demetrious Johnson for the UFC flyweight title is a very competitive fight in my eyes and the prop for the Moraga points handicap (set at a generous 9.5 points) is only -160, a solid price to pay if you think this is going to be a competitive fight that Moraga could steal. If Moraga wins the fight by KO or decision you automatically win (it appears as though a submission win for Moraga won’t be a winner based on the wording of the bet at Several Bookmakers). And even if Johnson wins by scores of 49-46, 49-46, and 49-46, you still win. Basically, Moraga just has to win a round on all three cards and not get finished, and you win your bet of -160. To me there’s definitely some value in this prop bet and both Moraga and Johnson backers should take a look at it. Ellenberger Wins Inside Distance (+350) If Jake Ellenberger is your pick to beat Rory MacDonald, then you should probably just bypass the +185 moneyline on Ellenberger and just bet the prop on him winning inside the distance, which pays out at +350. The reason is simple: if Ellenberger wins this fight, it’s going to be by knockout. No ifs, ands, or buts. If the fight goes the three-round distance, there’s no doubt that MacDonald — who has by far the superior cardio and workrate — is going to get his hand raised, unless of course there is a near-knockdown in round one that results in a 10-8 Ellenberger round (of course, that didn’t help him when he was robbed by the judges against Carlos Condit). Therefore, with the inside the distance bet paying out at twice the regular moneyline, just go with the ITD bet instead for maximum value on “The Juggernaut.” This is also a good hedge for MacDonald backers. Lawler By 3-Round Decision (+318) Robbie Lawler takes on a tough guy in Bobby Voelker on the UFC on FOX 8 undercard and although Lawler’s moneyline is sitting as a rich -260, his prop to win by a 3-round decision is paying out at +318. Since Voelker is a tough guy, this is an interesting to bet to possibly make because there is a good chance that the fight goes to a decision if Voelker can make it out of round one. Of course, that’s no sure thing since Lawler is known for his quick finishes and Voelker has been knocked out twice in round one before, but that’s why the prop for Lawler — the clear favorite to win this fight — is paying out at +318. If you think Voelker is tough enough to survive “Ruthless,” make this bet. Chiesa Wins Inside Distance (+429) Michael Chiesa is a sizeable +240 underdog against Jorge Masvidal, but this is a fight he can win and if he wins it’s likely going to come inside the distance. And the prop for that to happen is paying out at +429. If Chiesa is your side in this fight, it may be a good idea to lay at least a flier on the ITD prop because Chiesa most likely wins the fight by submission (or T/KO). Yes, Masvidal goes to a lot of decisions, but he’s been submitted by the rear-naked choke twice before and that’s Chiesa’s speciality. So there’s definitely value on Chiesa ITD at +429. Guillard Wins Inside Distance (+200) Melvin Guillard vs. Mac Danzig looks like a competitive fight on paper and it certainly is, but if Guillard wins the fight he likely does it by a finish and the prop for him to do so is paying out at +200. Although Danzig is a tough and durable fighter, Guillard’s UFC career is on the line in this fight and after switching camps to Grudge, I expect his boxing to look very sharp often and early on. If he can keep the fight standing, he likely knocks Danzig out and the prop for him to do so pays out at +200 so it’s worth a shot if that’s what you think is going to happen.
