UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis
Date: November 11
Arena: Ted Constant Convocation Center
City: Norfolk, VA
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is heading to Norfolk, VA for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis. The stacked 13-fight card is set to kick off with prelims on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET. Preliminary action will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., with the main card getting going on the same channel at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
Here are my live dogs:
Bantamweight bout: Raphael Assuncao (-335) vs. Matthew Lopez (+275)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Nobody seems to find any success with their wrestling when it comes to Assuncao. He seems to shut down the best grapplers in the game. Another test for his takedown defense is Lopez in this matchup, and while history shows he should pass it with flying colors, I for one am not convinced. Lopez is arguably the best takedown artist the Brazilian has yet to face, which is saying a heck of a lot, considering his accomplished resume. On the feet, Lopez will be at a disadvantage, but he could surprise there. It would not shock me to see him catch Assuncao on the feet, though I think his wrestling will be his key to victory in this matchup, as I could see him securing takedowns to edge out a decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, making it three straight for himself inside the Octagon. I think Lopez should be a +160 underdog in this spot, so I see great value in him at his current offering underdog price of +275, and while I think Assuncao has a greater chance of getting his hand raised, I am going to pick Lopez to upset him and outright win this fight.
Gabe’s Call: Lopez by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Lopez (+275)
Women’s Strawweight bout: Angela Hill (-190) vs. Nina Ansaroff (+165)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is a very close matchup in the UFC’s women’s strawweight division and much closer than the current betting odds suggest. I see this as a coin-flip matchup, so at the current odds, I see value in Ansaroff at her underdog price of +165. She holds the size and grappling advantage in this bout, and she will be the aggressor on the feet. Hill will likely find success with her counter attacks, but over the course of three rounds, I think Ansaroff stands a good chance of doing enough to edge out a decision. She is capable on the feet and I could see her forward pressure ultimately making the difference on the judges’ scorecards.
Gabe’s Call: Ansaroff by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ansaroff (+165)
