Maybe the Octagon was a bit rusty after a three week break because UFC 210 turned into a weird and wacky event. From fighters’ gameplans to referee decisions, Buffalo brought the bizarre out last Saturday night. Hopefully, the Midwest will get us back to the action we’re more accustomed to, as Kansas City will host UFC on FOX 24.
Top pound-for-pound fighter Demetrious Johnson will look for his UFC-record tying 10th title defense at 125 pounds. In his way will be Wilson Reis, a man Johnson was scheduled to fight last summer before an injury forced his withdrawal. Reis brings a three-fight win streak into his title opportunity, but only one of them has come against a ranked opponent, and he’s gone just 1-1 against ranked flyweights in his UFC career.
Kansas City is one of the stomping grounds of Invicta FC, and the co-main event honors that organization, as Rose Namajunas and former Invicta champion Michelle Waterson meet in a strawweight contenders match. Namajunas comes into this match off a loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz while Waterson has shown the best form of her career while going 2-0 since coming into the UFC. Despite the two aforementioned matches, the best fight on this card might be third on the docket, as Jacare Souza provides the biggest step up in competition in the career of Kiwi Robert Whittaker. The only loss of Jacare’s UFC career has been a controversial split decision to Yoel Romero while Whittaker has been dominant in his five fights since moving back up to middleweight, winning all five.
The final main card bout is at 145 pounds, as slugger Jeremy Stephens takes on undefeated Brazilian Renato Moicano. Injuries have limited Moicano to just two UFC appearances since debuting back in December 2014, but a win over the fifth-ranked Stephens would immediately launch him into the upper echelon of featherweights. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for the entire UFC on FOX 24 card Monday at Several Bookmakers. Previously released were odds for the top three bouts, which included Demetrious Johnson opening a -1050 favorite over Reis, a near Pick’em between Namajunas (-135) and Waterson (-105), and Jacare at -190 against Whittaker (+150). Check out the new lines below…
UFC on FOX 24: Johnson vs. Reis
APRIL 15, 2017
Sprint Center | Kansas City, Missouri
Main Card – (8 PM ET, FOX)
Flyweight Title:
Wilson Reis +550
Demetrious Johnson -1050
Over 3.5 -175
Under 3.5 +135
–
Michelle Waterson -105
Rose Namajunas -135
Over 2.5 -175
Under 2.5 +135
–
Robert Whittaker +150
Ronaldo Souza -190
Over 1.5 -130
Under 1.5 -110
–
Renato Moicano +125
Jeremy Stephens -165
Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100
–
Preliminary Card – (FOX, 6 PM ET)
Roy Nelson +100
Alexander Volkov -140
Over 1.5 -160
Under 1.5 +120
–
Patrick Williams +265
Tom Duquesnoy -385
Over 1.5 -105
Under 1.5 -135
–
Bobby Green +180
Rashid Magomedov -260
Over 2.5 -190
Under 2.5 +150
–
Louis Smolka +170
Tim Elliott -230
Over 2.5 -210
Under 2.5 +160
–
Preliminary Card – (UFC Fight Pass, 4:30 PM ET)
Augusto Mendes +165
Aljamain Sterling -215
Over 2.5 -190
Under 2.5 +150
–
Jake Collier +110
Devin Clark -150
Over 1.5 -140
Under 1.5 +100
–
Anthony Smith +140
Andrew Sanchez -180
Over 2.5 -135
Under 2.5 -105
–
Nathan Coy +200
Zak Cummings -280
Over 1.5 -175
Under 1.5 +135
–
Ketlen Vieira +130
Ashlee Evans-Smith -170
Over 2.5 -210
Under 2.5 +160
–
Brad’s Analysis: Stephens was originally rumored to face Gilbert Melendez, and I think he would’ve dominated that bout. Moicano offers a more difficult challenge at this point, but I consider him a lesser version of Charles Oliveira, and if Stephens was prepared for the wrestling Do Bronx brought to that fight, I suspect he would’ve won it. I doubt he’ll make the same mistake here, and if he can keep Moicano on the feet he’ll likely land a knockout blow at some point. I do expect Stephens to end up overvalued as far as betting lines go however, so I won’t be betting him unless the line dips drastically at some point.
Nelson doesn’t have a lot left at this point, and I think the improvement Volkov has made suit him well in this matchup. I didn’t score his UFC debut against Tim Johnson for him, but his takedown defense was impressive against a better wrestler than Nelson, and Johnson also offers more variety on the feet. It’s been years since Nelson has stopped anyone relevant on the feet, and the book has been out on him for as long as I can remember. Volkov simply needs to watch out for the overhand right, which is getting slower and slower, and he’ll own the striking in this fight on his way to a decision win.
Duquesnoy is a legitimate prospect, and he may already be the best French fighter in the world at age 23. His well-rounded game is suited for nearly anyone outside the Top 15 at bantamweight, and while Williams will prove a dangerous opponent early, Duquesnoy will take over in the second and third rounds should the fight get that far.
I’m not going to lie, Magomedov/Green is about the least appealing matchup you could suggest to me in the lightweight division. Green talks more than he fights, even while in fights, and Magomedov is a talented striker, but he presents no threat to finish fights. This could very likely be 15 minutes of Magomedov poking at Green, and Green talking about how not hurt he is by anything. In fact, that’s almost exactly what I’m expecting.
Where Ray Borg was a terrible matchup for Smolka because of his ability to dominate scrambles, Smolka has a real chance against Elliott because of Elliott’s propensity to get wild and sloppy in scrambles. I’m also not sure how Elliott will look at flyweight, as he has previously stated the weight cut is terrible, and he wasn’t going to do it anymore. If I can get a line on Smolka north of +200, I’ll probably take the shot.
Collier and Clark are two fighters who are skilled offensively, poor defensively, and not incredibly durable. I can see this one ending at any time, for either man. Unless the line sways heavily one way or another, I can’t see myself betting a side here, but the under could be intriguing.
Smith is the more dangerous striker, and he’s also the more dangerous submission artist. But his cardio is questionable, and he’s at a big wrestling deficit against Sanchez. If Smith can stuff some takedowns early and do significant damage to Sanchez he’s got a shot here, but I have a hard time picturing this fight going any significant period of time without him being on his back.
This may not be a popular opinion, but Mendes might actually have better boxing than Sterling. That may not matter if Sterling can put Mendes on his back – despite Mendes’ grappling credentials – but Sterling’s wrestling hasn’t been particularly impressive against top competition, and Mendes has proven difficult to take down thus far in his career. I envision a close striking battle, and perhaps a takedown or two from Mendes helping him seal a decision and an upset here.
Cummings seems like a better version of Coy, doesn’t he? Coy is the more credentialed wrestler, but they’ve both found similar effectiveness with their wrestling in MMA. The big difference between them is on the feet. Cummings has developed his striking far more than Coy, and he’s much more durable. I see that combination leading to a Cummings win here, perhaps even by TKO.
