UFC Fight Night 106: Belfort vs. Gastelum Date: March 11, 2017 Arena: Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste City: Fortaleza, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is in back in Fortaleza, Brazil for the second time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 106: Belfort vs. Gastelum. The 12-fight main card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary on UFC Fight Pass at 7:30pm ET. The prelims will then continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm, and the main card will follow on the same channel at 10pm. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakers. Here are my prop plays: Kelvin Gastelum (-345) vs Vitor Belfort (+315) Gastelum by Decision (+782) I favor Gastelum to win this fight inside the distance but I think the Decision prop at +782 holds a good amount of value. Sure, Belfort has been getting finished, but Gastelum is the smallest opponent he has faced, and if he shows up in shape for this fight, I could see him fighting to see the judges’ scorecards, where he will likely face a unanimous decision defeat. Sergio Moraes (-225) vs Davi Ramos (+190) Ramos by T/KO (+850) I think this line holds value, considering the fact that Moraes has been rocked in previous fights and Ramos throws heavy leather. I favor this bout to hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision, but should it end inside the distance, I think that Ramos winning via T/KO would be the most likely scenario. Tim Means (-185) vs Alex Oliveira (+160) Oliveira by Decision (+420) I thought this was the most likely outcome to this contest the first time they met. I no longer feel that way after seeing how that fight played out, however I do think this line still holds value, as I could see the Brazilian pulling this one out on the scorecards. This is worth playing to hedge your bet on Tim Means, if you took him straight up or in a parlay. Rani Yahya (-220) vs Joe Soto (+180) Soto by Submission (+738) Soto by T/KO (+1240) Contrary to popular opinion, I think Soto is capable of submitting Yahya. That’s how good I think he is. Should he score a submission here, I think it would most likely be some sort of leg lock. On paper, he is the superior striker, as well, and Yahya does not have a great chin, so it would not surprise me to see Soto finish this fight by strikes, either. I see value in both of these lines and think they’re worth playing. 
