This Saturday, the Octagon returns to Brazil for the third time already in 2013 as UFC on Fuel TV 10 puts a bow on the second season of ‘The Ultimate Fighter Brazil’. The finale of the tournament will pit longtime veteran Leonardo Santos against William Macario in a Welterweight bout. More importantly to North American fans, the main event of the card features Heavyweights Fabricio Werdum and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in a rematch of their 2006 PRIDE battle. The remainder of the card is rife with Brazilians, as fighters like former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight champion Rafael ‘Feijao’, Thiago Santos and Erick Silva are all in action on the card. Aside from the TUF Brazil finale, the lines for the other main card fights were already released. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the remaining lines for the card at Several Bookmakers. Check them out below: ——————– MAIN CARD (FUEL TV) Fabricio Werdum -180 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +140 Leonardo Santos -265 William Macario +185 Rafael Cavalcante -150 Thiago Silva +110 Daniel Sarafian -270 Eddie Mendez +190 Erick Silva -305 Jason High +225 Rony Jason -305 Mike Wilkinson +225 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (FACEBOOK) Raphael Assuncao -420 Vaughan Lee +300 Ronny Markes -230 Derek Brunson +170 Felipe Arantes -160 Godofredo Castro +120 Ildemar Alcantara -150 Leandro Silva +110 Mizuto Hirota -130 Rodrigo Damm -110 Karlos Vemola -185 Caio Magalhaes +145 Antonio Braga Neto -230 Anthony Smith +170 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Considering the fact that Leo Santos and William Macario are the only two competitors from TUF Brazil 2 on this card (Leandro Silva was eliminated before getting into the house), there is still a surprising lack of UFC experience as a whole on the undercard, which makes getting a good read on the fights difficult. One spot where I see some potential value is in Felipe Arantes against Godofredo ‘Pepey’. Looking at their records, they have a recent common opponent (Milton Vieira) and ‘Pepey’ has the better result. However, many thought that Arantes deserved the win against Vieira, while Godofredo’s decision should have gone the other way. ‘Pepey’ has an aggressive all-around game, but Arantes is the better technical fighter, and I expect that to shine through here even though the line is close. Even though this goes against the trend of picking Brazilians when fighting foreigners in Brazil, I see good things for Karlos Vemola on Saturday as well. Caio Magalhaes failed to impress in his lone UFC appearance thus far, and I see Vemola as a much sterner test than Buddy Roberts. Finally, Derek Brunson could be worth a look as well. He was unimpressive in his UFC debut, but that was a very short notice fight and he did what he had to do in order to win. Against Markes he faces a fighter with a very similar style and similar cardio issues. At +170 he’s bordering on a play, but if the line goes up that could be one to watch.
