Ask Cousin Gabe: UFC 209 Edition

‘Ask Cousin Gabe’ is an article at MMAOddsBreaker.com where I answer questions from readers. If you would like to ask me a question regarding wagering, any upcoming fight cards, or MMA in general, please email it to budosophy@gmail.com and make sure to include your name and location. “Who is your favorite underdog at UFC 209? -Mitch, Toronto He is no longer the favorite, but Luke Sanders was an underdog at one point at -105 to opponent Iuri Alcantara’s -115. However, the lines have since flipped and are the exact opposite, with Sanders being -115 and Alcantara -105. Sanders is my favorite play on this card, so since he was technically an underdog at one point, he would be my pick. Cynthia Calvillo makes her UFC debut against Amanda Cooper on the Fight Pass prelims, and I recommended her as a +100 underdog in my article, but she is now a slight favorite at -120. She would have been my second favorite underdog, but she is technically no longer a dog, too. Next, in order, I like David Teymur (+325), Daniel Spitz (+130) and Daniel Kelly (+200). “Bektic at -600? Do you think Elkins is worth a shot?” -Mike, Fresno, CA Since receiving your email, Bektic has jumped to -800, and to answer your question, no. I don’t think Elkins is worth a bet, even at his currently offered underdog pricetag of +550. Former colleague Adam Martin brought to my attention that Elkins has won as an underdog seven out of 10 times in the UFC, so I could see why people would be quick to take a stab on him here. I just don’t think it’s worth it. This is a fight I do not see him winning. Bektic is not going to fade and allow him to take over. The only way I see Bektic losing is by getting caught with something incredibly rare, an injury or DQ. I do think Bektic is a justified -800 favorite and feel good about getting him at -350, as I felt he had great value at that price. “Who do you want to see the Diaz brothers fight?” -Nick, Seattle, WA Nick Diaz vs. Matt Brown – I would say Lawler or Condit, but I’d like to see him take on someone like Brown first. Nate Diaz vs. Michael Chiesa – This matchup had not even crossed my mind until receiving this question. I think this is an excellent matchup. All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated.