While much of Canada celebrates a long weekend, the MMA landscape will be busy next weekend. It will be one of the rare occurences where a Bellator card takes center stage, even though there’s a UFC event taking place. With the holiday, the UFC has pushed their Halifax card to Sunday. The hope is that their heavyweight main event can follow up what is sure to be an intriguing one the previous night from Bellator. UFC’s offering will be rising contender and social media gem Derrick Lewis taking on the biggest test of his career against Travis Browne. Although Lewis came away with his fifth consecutive win in his last outing, his performance was not particularly inspiring through the first three rounds. The same could be said of Browne over his last two appearances, as he offered little against both Cain Velasquez in a first round stoppage and Fabricio Werdum in a decision loss. However, the heavyweight division always sees fighters just an impressive win or two away from contention, and a victory here for either would put them in the tier just below the top contenders. The co-main event is an interesting fight between two former champions looking for traction. Former UFC welterweight champion Johny Hendricks has struggled to find victories and make the 170lb limit in recent fights, being forced to move up to middleweight as a result. His first test at the new weight will be former Bellator 185lb champion Hector Lombard. The Cuban Olympian had a 31-2-1 record coming into the UFC, but has gone just 3-4, 1 NC inside the Octagon, most recently suffering his first two career stoppage losses. Other notable fights on UFC Fight Night 105 include: Canadian Elias Theodorou taking on the streaking Cezar Ferreira, middleweight strikers Thiago Santos and Jack Marshman in what should be an exciting affair, Argentina’s top fighter Santiago Ponzinibbio taking on Tristar’s Nordine Taleb, and former women’s bantamweight title challenger Sara McMann welcoming Gina Mazany to the Octagon. The undercard features Canadian fighters in each bout, as Ryan Janes hopes to follow up on a successful UFC debut, Randa Markos takes on former strawweight champion Carla Esparza, and Tristar boss Firas Zahabi’s brother, Aiemann, makes his UFC debut. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas had previously opened the betting odds for the top three fights at Several Bookmakers, and today he released the lines for the remaining eight bouts. Keep reading to find out what they are: ——————– UFC Fight Night 105: Lewis vs. Browne FEBRUARY 19, 2017 Scotiabank Centre | Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada Derrick Lewis -115 Travis Browne -125 Over 1.5 +125 Under 1.5 -165 – Hector Lombard -120 Johny Hendricks -120 Over 1.5 -180 Under 1.5 +140 – Sam Sicilia -130 Gavin Tucker -110 Over 1.5 -190 Under 1.5 +150 – Cezar Ferreira +125 Elias Theodorou -165 Over 1.5 -190 Under 1.5 +150 – Nordine Taleb +185 Santiago Ponzinibbio -265 Over 1.5 -190 Under 1.5 +150 – Randa Markos +160 Carla Esparza -210 Over 2.5 -245 Under 2.5 +175 – Reginaldo Vieira +125 Aiemann Zahabi -165 Over 1.5 -190 Under 1.5 +150 – Jack Marshman +130 Thiago Santos -170 Over 1.5 -150 Under 1.5 +110 – Alex Ricci +205 Paul Felder -285 Over 2.5 -170 Under 2.5 +130 – Ryan Janes +145 Gerald Meerschaert -185 Over 1.5 -185 Under 1.5 +145 – Gina Mazany +260 Sara McMann -380 Over 2.5 -190 Under 2.5 +150 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Jack Marshman isn’t a stranger to taking damage in fights in order to deliver fight-ending shots, and that’s exactly what he’ll have to do here. My concern is more in regards to how well he can stand up to the devastating power of Thiago Santos’ kicks. Marshman has been stopped by strikes on three separate occasions in his career, and Santos should be free to unload without being concerned about getting taken down. That has me leaning towards Santos, although the way he got clipped by Eric Spicely before being taken down and submitted is certainly worrisome against a hard hitter like Marshman. Speaking of guys with heavy hands, Santiago Ponzinibbio is almost unrecognizable from when he entered the UFC. The Argentine has showed a great deal of improvement in his takedown defense, and that has allowed him to pressure opponents and throw his hands with more conviction. He’ll have to deal with the size advantage that Nordie Taleb holds over him, but Taleb doesn’t throw enough volume to dissuade Ponzinibbio from getting into the pocket, where he’ll have a speed and power advantage. I could see Ponzinibbio stopping Taleb for the first time since the French fighter’s second career outing. Gina Mazany started her MMA career in 2008, and she has four fights (one each in 2008, ’09, ’13, and ’16). Maybe she’s taking the sport more seriously now than she has in the past, but even if that is the case I’d be surprised if she can overcome the physical disadvantages she’ll face against Sara McMann, let alone the skill deficits in wrestling and boxing. Mazany is a late replacement for Liz Carmouche in this fight as well and didn’t have another fight scheduled that she was training for, so who knows what kind of shape she’ll come into this fight in. Aiemann Zahabi could have some extra hype heading into this bout because of his record and who his brother is, but if that all results in an inflated line, I might be looking to fade him here. Zahabi has never faced anyone of consequence (his best win is an 18 second TKO over a 2-0 fighter). Reginaldo Vieira isn’t anything special, but he’s got a decent grappling game, and should be willing to wade through Zahabi’s strikes to try and get the fight there. If Vieira is content to throw hands, as he was at times against Dileno Lopes, he’ll get soundly outstruck, so I’ll need something in excess of +200 to play him, which is a big ask against a debuting fighter. Esparza and Markos should be competitive everywhere, but as Markos inevitably fades Esparza should be able to take over. Esparza is the more technical wrestler, and as long as she doesn’t get clipped with something hard from Markos that puts her into a shell, she can parlay that advantage into a decision victory. Gerald Meerschaert’s biggest strength is his submission game, but if he accepts a grappling match with Ryan Janes I think that would be a mistake. Meerschaert is more well-rounded, younger, better conditioned, and has an advantage if this stays on the feet. I think he’ll recognize that Janes doesn’t offer much outside of a top position grappling game, and work to avoid that. However, until I see a fighter go out there and consistently fight a smart gameplan at this level, I don’t trust that they will, and can’t bet Meerschaert as a favorite. Gavin Tucker is another fighter coming from the Canadian regional scene who has an impressive looking record, but hasn’t faced much in the way of competition. If he’s actually ready for this level, his bout with Sam Sicilia should be one of the more entertaining ones on this card, as both guys like to throw hard and don’t offer a ton of defense. However, if Tucker is overwhelmed by the step up in competition, I could see Sicilia simply choose to go to his wrestling for 15 minutes to take the safer route to victory. Jeremy Kennedy was a terrible stylistic matchup for Alex Ricci, and employed the worst gameplan for Ricci to face. Against Paul Felder, we’ll get a much better idea of what Ricci is actually capable of, and I expect this fight to be quite competitive on the feet. Felder is the more dangerous striker, but he’s also so flawed defensively that Ricci will get his licks in. Whether the Canadian can do that for 15 minutes without getting into a firefight with Felder will determine just how successful he’ll be in this fight, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Felder bettors are sweating a decision with one of the biggest favorites on the card, especially with Canadian judges.
